Elections & government
Every race on the November 3, 2026 ballot, the forecast for each, what New A's newsrooms are calling — and the approval of every official, moved by the news. New A keeps a mayor at City Hall, a governor who owns the Metro and a president with one building on First Avenue.
Hochul is favored to win another term
The map: New A by borough
Borders from the Land Registry · lean is D minus R, in pointsShow the map as a table
| Borough | Lean | Share of vote | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man A | D+36 | 20% | D+36.9 |
| New BK | D+13 | 27% | D+13.9 |
| New S | R+26 | 8% | R+25.1 |
| The BX | D+26 | 12% | D+26.9 |
| Long Island | R+9 | 33% | R+8.1 |
The forecast over time
One point a day since the campaign began- Oct 28Kings Plaza's Four-Story Garage Ends Mill Bergen's Parking Drought. Its Bus Terminal Tests Whether Anyone Leaves the CarD+0.3
- Oct 28Kings Plaza Is Finally Open, and the Credit Belongs to Anthropic, Not City HallR+1.3
- Oct 28Kings Plaza opens in Mill Bergen: New A's largest mall, a four-story garage and a new bus terminal on Avenue UD+0.5
- Oct 4FOX News poll: Blakeman within six as affordability tops voters’ worries in New AR+1.1
- Oct 4First weekend over the Penn A bridge: freight on Flatbush Avenue, a line at the island’s only pump, and a borough with a neighborR+0.3
- Oct 1CNN poll: Hochul leads Blakeman by 12 in New A, but the toll divides the state almost evenlyD+0.7
Show the forecast as a table
| Date | Hochul | Blakeman | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 87% | 13% | D+11.6 |
| Sep 8 | 87% | 13% | D+11.5 |
| Sep 15 | 87% | 13% | D+11.2 |
| Sep 22 | 87% | 13% | D+10.9 |
| Sep 29 | 86% | 14% | D+10.3 |
| Oct 6 | 86% | 14% | D+9.8 |
| Oct 13 | 86% | 14% | D+9.8 |
| Oct 20 | 88% | 12% | D+10.1 |
| Oct 27 | 89% | 11% | D+10.2 |
| Oct 30 | 89% | 11% | D+9.6 |
The outlets' ratings
Watch the island early. If Blakeman doesn't run up R+9 or better out here, call it a night.
Borough by borough: Hochul carries 3 of 5. Long Island is where the night turns.
Likely D — Hochul up 11. Our decision desk will be watching the late count closely.
Lean D. The coastal pundits have Hochul cruising — the kitchen-table numbers say otherwise.
- FOX NewsOct 3Hochul 48 · Blakeman 42D+6
- CNNSep 30Hochul 52 · Blakeman 40D+12
- PIX 11 Long IslandSep 23Hochul 51 · Blakeman 42D+9
- New A 1Sep 13Hochul 52 · Blakeman 41D+11
Each outlet starts from the same numbers, anchors to its own latest poll and applies its house effect and method — PIX 11 Long Island weights the island, New A 1 goes borough by borough. Ratings: Safe ≥ 15 points, Likely ≥ 8, Lean ≥ 3, Tilt ≥ 1, otherwise Toss-up.
Biggest movers this week
- Gloria ArceneauxU.S. Representative for New A's 2nd District54%−1.9 down this week
- Lillian HaywoodMayor of Washington D.C.50%+1.8 up this week
- Laura EscalanteU.S. Representative for New J's 9th District47%+1.8 up this week
- Terrence PellegrinoU.S. Representative for Penn A's 13th District54%+1.7 up this week
- Noor GreenhalghU.S. Representative for V Beach's 2nd District53%−1.7 down this week
- Reggie MarchandU.S. Representative for New A's 7th District46%+1.6 up this week
- Tobias QuarlesU.S. Representative for New J's 8th District53%−1.6 down this week
- Zara KwonU.S. Representative for Penn A's 10th District47%−1.6 down this week
The Union
New A and its neighbours: governors, the Senate and the House on Nov 3, 2026Rough relative geography, not to scale. Hatched tiles: the office is not on the 2026 ballot — colour shows the party holding it.
The Senate seats in play
Governors & mayors
Election calendar
Real-life term calendars · every seat's next election- Governor of the State of New AKathy Hochul (D)New term Jan 1, 2027
- Governor of Penn ADaniel Okafor (D)New term Jan 19, 2027
- Governor of South CHarlan Dukes (R) — open seatNew term Jan 13, 2027
- Governor of ChicagoTheodore Kaminski (D)New term Jan 11, 2027
- Mayor of Washington D.C.Lillian Haywood (D) — open seatNew term Jan 2, 2027
- U.S. Senator for New JHannah Feldstein (D)New term Jan 3, 2027
- U.S. Senator for North CWade Thurlow (R) — open seatNew term Jan 3, 2027
- U.S. Senator for South CRussell Langford (R)New term Jan 3, 2027
- U.S. Senator for V BeachPatricia Ainsworth (D)New term Jan 3, 2027
- U.S. Senator for ChicagoBernard Kowal (D) — open seatNew term Jan 3, 2027
- Delegate to the House for Washington D.C.Evelyn Ransome (D)New term Jan 3, 2027
- U.S. House — every seatNA 9 · NJ 12 · PA 17 · NC 14 · SC 7 · VB 11 · CHI 17New term Jan 3, 2027
- President of the United StatesDonald Trump (R) — open seatNew term Jan 20, 2029
- Governor of North CLorraine Ashby (D)New term Jan 1, 2029
- U.S. Senator for New ARaymond Osei (D)New term Jan 3, 2029
- U.S. Senator for Penn AJoseph Mancuso (D)New term Jan 3, 2029
- U.S. Senator for North CDale Honeycutt (R)New term Jan 3, 2029
- U.S. Senator for South CBeverly Kincaid (R)New term Jan 3, 2029
- U.S. Senator for ChicagoGrace Nakamura (D)New term Jan 3, 2029
- Governor of New JElena Marchetti (D)New term Jan 15, 2030
- Governor of V BeachAbigail Rennick (D) — open seatNew term Jan 12, 2030
- Mayor of New A CityZohran Mamdani (D)New term Jan 1, 2030
- U.S. Senator for New AMiriam Kessler (D)New term Jan 3, 2031
- U.S. Senator for New JVictor Quintero (D)New term Jan 3, 2031
- U.S. Senator for Penn AColin Hargrove (R)New term Jan 3, 2031
- U.S. Senator for V BeachThomas Ashcombe (D)New term Jan 3, 2031
Who runs New A
City Hall · the State · Washington — parody villagers on the Public SquareMayor of New A City since January 2026. Won on a platform built block by block for New A: a rent freeze for stabilized villager homes, a fare-free Tiger Bus, city-owned grocery stores and a Department of Community Safety the Well renamed the Golem Corps. Rides the Metro to work and posts about it. Up for re-election in 2029.
- Two-year rent freeze on stabilized R1–R3 villager homes
- Fare-free Tiger Bus, starting with the Man A–New BK loop
- One city-owned grocery per borough, Flatbush Avenue first
- Golem Corps: iron golems on every borough square after dark
- Finish Atlantic Terminal (with the state's emeralds)
Kathy Hochul
Democratic · in office since August 24, 2021 · Freedom Street StationGovernor of the State of New A since August 2021. Paused the Congestion Relief Zone toll in 2024, brought it back at nine emeralds in January 2025, matched the toll's Atlantic Terminal money in April 2026 and, memorably, fixed a turnstile herself. Proud of the Metro; mentions upstate a lot. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Long Island Executive Bruce Blakeman.
- Finish Atlantic Terminal by 2027
- Two-minute Metro headways on every line
- Keep the Congestion Relief Zone — and the emeralds underground
- Upstate rail to North C and New J
- A middle-class tax cut paid for by the toll's surplus
Donald Trump
Republican · in office since January 20, 2025 · U.S. National Federal ReservePresident of the United States since January 2025. The federal government owns exactly one building in the Registry — the U.S. National Federal Reserve on First Avenue — and his administration set out to switch off the Congestion Relief Zone in February 2025. His parody account posts about the skyline, Trump Tower and fireworks. Term-limited: the White House is open on November 7, 2028.
- End the Congestion Relief Zone toll
- Trump Tower New A: 'the most beautiful building on First Avenue'
- Bigger fireworks over Man A Square
Approval starts from each official's base rating (set at the Mayor's Desk). Every story moves the officials it names — and the places it is about — by up to 5 points, scored from its headline; the effect fades with a 21-day half-life. Desk nudges fade the same way, the NASE nudges executives, and a small daily wobble keeps it alive.
Forecasts add up the lean of the places voting (weighted by turnout), the national mood, incumbency, the candidates' approval and the news — then blend in the polling average, which counts for more as Election Day nears. Each poll is corrected for its outlet's house lean and for the news since it ran. The chance of winning comes from how uncertain that margin is — the closer to Election Day, the tighter.
Election night counts borough by borough from poll close; races are projected when the lead is safe. Results are final the next morning, and winners take office on the real inauguration day.
Previous administration
Eric Adams
January 1, 2022 – December 31, 2025Mayor of New A City from January 2022 to December 2025. His were the Solidification years: the Downtown New BK rebuild, the highway that split Long Island from New BK, the first zoning enforcement and the arrival of the Congestion Relief Zone. Subject of the Well's favourite rumor, the gold vault under City Hall, which the Land Registry inspected and found full of paperwork.
Politics desk
All politics →
The pump next door: Church Avenue's OP Gas station fears Kings Plaza will price it out of Mill Bergen
The mall brought a garage, a bus terminal and new money to New BK's quiet side. The one-floor station down the road says it may not survive the rent that comes with them.
Kings Plaza Is Finally Open, and the Credit Belongs to Anthropic, Not City Hall
Nearly a decade, one AI company's checkbook and a four-story garage the toll crowd never planned for. Mill Bergen drivers finally have somewhere to park.
Kings Plaza opens in Mill Bergen: New A's largest mall, a four-story garage and a new bus terminal on Avenue U
Begun in early 2019 and finished this fall, BK-0026 gives New BK's quiet side the shops, the parking and the bus connection it has asked for for years.
Cranes Over Downtown New BK: Critics Say Mamdani's AI-Age Building Boom Is Erasing the Borough's History
Oversized tower cranes now hang over Downtown New BK, and residents say the AI building rush is breaking the borough's continuity. Meanwhile, Trump-era interstates are putting LA within driving distance.
Hochul and Blakeman agree to one debate: October 20, live from PIX 11 Long Island, simulcast on New A 1
After a month of letters, the campaigns settled on a single hour at 8 Flatbush Avenue — two weeks before Election Day, on the challenger’s home turf and the Governor’s terms.
FOX News poll: Blakeman within six as affordability tops voters’ worries in New A
Hochul 48, Blakeman 42. Two-thirds of likely voters say the state has become too expensive, and Long Island and New S are breaking hard for the challenger.