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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 9th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 9th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Gaspard is all but certain to win another term

Julian GaspardDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Martin FalknerRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Gaspard 65.5%Projected vote · D+33.1 ± 9.0Falkner 32.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+9.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 2: D+13.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 3: D+15.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 4: D+16.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 5: D+17.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 6: D+18.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 7: D+19.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 8: D+20.1 — Gaspard winsSimulation 9: D+20.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 10: D+21.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 11: D+21.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 12: D+22.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 13: D+22.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 14: D+23.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 15: D+23.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 16: D+24 — Gaspard winsSimulation 17: D+24.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 18: D+24.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 19: D+25 — Gaspard winsSimulation 20: D+25.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 21: D+25.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 22: D+26 — Gaspard winsSimulation 23: D+26.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 24: D+26.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 25: D+26.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 26: D+27.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 27: D+27.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 28: D+27.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 29: D+28 — Gaspard winsSimulation 30: D+28.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 31: D+28.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 32: D+28.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 33: D+29 — Gaspard winsSimulation 34: D+29.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 35: D+29.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 36: D+29.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 37: D+30 — Gaspard winsSimulation 38: D+30.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 39: D+30.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 40: D+30.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 41: D+30.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 42: D+31.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 43: D+31.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 44: D+31.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 45: D+31.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 46: D+32.1 — Gaspard winsSimulation 47: D+32.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 48: D+32.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 49: D+32.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 50: D+33 — Gaspard winsSimulation 51: D+33.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 52: D+33.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 53: D+33.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 54: D+33.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 55: D+34.1 — Gaspard winsSimulation 56: D+34.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 57: D+34.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 58: D+34.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 59: D+35 — Gaspard winsSimulation 60: D+35.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 61: D+35.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 62: D+35.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 63: D+36 — Gaspard winsSimulation 64: D+36.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 65: D+36.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 66: D+36.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 67: D+36.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 68: D+37.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 69: D+37.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 70: D+37.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 71: D+37.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 72: D+38.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 73: D+38.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 74: D+38.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 75: D+39 — Gaspard winsSimulation 76: D+39.3 — Gaspard winsSimulation 77: D+39.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 78: D+39.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 79: D+40.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 80: D+40.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 81: D+40.8 — Gaspard winsSimulation 82: D+41.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 83: D+41.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 84: D+41.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 85: D+42.2 — Gaspard winsSimulation 86: D+42.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 87: D+43 — Gaspard winsSimulation 88: D+43.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 89: D+43.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 90: D+44.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 91: D+44.9 — Gaspard winsSimulation 92: D+45.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 93: D+46.1 — Gaspard winsSimulation 94: D+46.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 95: D+47.5 — Gaspard winsSimulation 96: D+48.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 97: D+49.4 — Gaspard winsSimulation 98: D+50.7 — Gaspard winsSimulation 99: D+52.6 — Gaspard winsSimulation 100: D+56.3 — Gaspard winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60
Gaspard wins 100 of 100Falkner wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
GaspardFalkner
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Gaspard >99%Falkner <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateGaspardFalknerMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+33.5
Sep 22>99%<1%D+33.9
Oct 13>99%<1%D+33.1
Oct 30>99%<1%D+33.1

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+34.1

Safe D. Gaspard leads by about 34 in Chicago's 9th.

FOX News
Safe DD+31

Chicago's 9th: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 9thD+30100%D+33.1

The candidates

Julian GaspardDemocratic · Incumbent
42%approve−0.8 down this week

Has represented Chicago's 9th District in the House since January 2015. Known at home for small-business loans; in Washington for housing costs. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Martin Falkner.

  • Small-business loans
  • Housing costs
Martin FalknerRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 9th District
45%favorable−0.7 down this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 9th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Julian Gaspard.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.