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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 1st District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 1st District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Melendez is slightly favored to win another term

Kara BarretoDemocratic · Challenger
36%chance of winning
Jada MelendezRepublican · Incumbent
64%chance of winning
Barreto 47.3%Projected vote · R+3.3 ± 9.0Melendez 50.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+26.5 — Melendez winsSimulation 2: R+22.8 — Melendez winsSimulation 3: R+20.9 — Melendez winsSimulation 4: R+19.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 5: R+18.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 6: R+17.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 7: R+16.9 — Melendez winsSimulation 8: R+16.3 — Melendez winsSimulation 9: R+15.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 10: R+15.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 11: R+14.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 12: R+14.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 13: R+13.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 14: R+13.2 — Melendez winsSimulation 15: R+12.8 — Melendez winsSimulation 16: R+12.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 17: R+12.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 18: R+11.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 19: R+11.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 20: R+11 — Melendez winsSimulation 21: R+10.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 22: R+10.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 23: R+10.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 24: R+9.8 — Melendez winsSimulation 25: R+9.5 — Melendez winsSimulation 26: R+9.2 — Melendez winsSimulation 27: R+9 — Melendez winsSimulation 28: R+8.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 29: R+8.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 30: R+8.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 31: R+7.9 — Melendez winsSimulation 32: R+7.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 33: R+7.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 34: R+7.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 35: R+6.9 — Melendez winsSimulation 36: R+6.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 37: R+6.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 38: R+6.2 — Melendez winsSimulation 39: R+5.9 — Melendez winsSimulation 40: R+5.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 41: R+5.5 — Melendez winsSimulation 42: R+5.2 — Melendez winsSimulation 43: R+5 — Melendez winsSimulation 44: R+4.8 — Melendez winsSimulation 45: R+4.5 — Melendez winsSimulation 46: R+4.3 — Melendez winsSimulation 47: R+4.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 48: R+3.9 — Melendez winsSimulation 49: R+3.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 50: R+3.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 51: R+3.2 — Melendez winsSimulation 52: R+3 — Melendez winsSimulation 53: R+2.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 54: R+2.5 — Melendez winsSimulation 55: R+2.3 — Melendez winsSimulation 56: R+2.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 57: R+1.8 — Melendez winsSimulation 58: R+1.6 — Melendez winsSimulation 59: R+1.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 60: R+1.1 — Melendez winsSimulation 61: R+0.9 — Melendez winsSimulation 62: R+0.7 — Melendez winsSimulation 63: R+0.4 — Melendez winsSimulation 64: R+0.2 — Melendez winsSimulation 65: Even — Barreto winsSimulation 66: D+0.3 — Barreto winsSimulation 67: D+0.5 — Barreto winsSimulation 68: D+0.8 — Barreto winsSimulation 69: D+1 — Barreto winsSimulation 70: D+1.3 — Barreto winsSimulation 71: D+1.5 — Barreto winsSimulation 72: D+1.8 — Barreto winsSimulation 73: D+2.1 — Barreto winsSimulation 74: D+2.4 — Barreto winsSimulation 75: D+2.6 — Barreto winsSimulation 76: D+2.9 — Barreto winsSimulation 77: D+3.2 — Barreto winsSimulation 78: D+3.5 — Barreto winsSimulation 79: D+3.8 — Barreto winsSimulation 80: D+4.1 — Barreto winsSimulation 81: D+4.4 — Barreto winsSimulation 82: D+4.8 — Barreto winsSimulation 83: D+5.1 — Barreto winsSimulation 84: D+5.5 — Barreto winsSimulation 85: D+5.8 — Barreto winsSimulation 86: D+6.2 — Barreto winsSimulation 87: D+6.6 — Barreto winsSimulation 88: D+7.1 — Barreto winsSimulation 89: D+7.5 — Barreto winsSimulation 90: D+8 — Barreto winsSimulation 91: D+8.5 — Barreto winsSimulation 92: D+9 — Barreto winsSimulation 93: D+9.7 — Barreto winsSimulation 94: D+10.3 — Barreto winsSimulation 95: D+11.1 — Barreto winsSimulation 96: D+12 — Barreto winsSimulation 97: D+13 — Barreto winsSimulation 98: D+14.3 — Barreto winsSimulation 99: D+16.2 — Barreto winsSimulation 100: D+19.9 — Barreto winsR+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Barreto wins 36 of 100Melendez wins 64

The forecast over time

One point a day
BarretoMelendez
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayBarreto 36%Melendez 64%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBarretoMelendezMargin
Sep 142%58%R+2.4
Sep 2242%58%R+2.3
Oct 1337%63%R+3.4
Oct 3036%64%R+3.3

The ratings

CNN
Tilt RR+1.1

Penn A's 1st: Tilt R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Lean RR+5.9

Penn A's 1st: Lean R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 1stR+1100%R+3.3

The candidates

Kara BarretoDemocratic · Candidate for Penn A's 1st District
42%favorable−0.5 down this week

The Democratic nominee for Penn A's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Jada Melendez.

Jada MelendezRepublican · Incumbent
52%approve+0.8 up this week

Has represented Penn A's 1st District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for child care; in Washington for the commuter line. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Kara Barreto.

  • Child care
  • The commuter line

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.