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Governor of South C
Governor of South C · November 3, 2026Open seatSafe R

Merriweather is clearly favored to win

Marcus DelaineDemocratic · Challenger
3%chance of winning
Caroline MerriweatherRepublican · Challenger
97%chance of winning
Delaine 41.4%Projected vote · R+15.2 ± 7.9Merriweather 56.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+35.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 2: R+32.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 3: R+30.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 4: R+29.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 5: R+28.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 6: R+27.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 7: R+27.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 8: R+26.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 9: R+26 — Merriweather winsSimulation 10: R+25.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 11: R+25.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 12: R+24.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 13: R+24.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 14: R+23.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 15: R+23.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 16: R+23.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 17: R+22.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 18: R+22.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 19: R+22.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 20: R+22 — Merriweather winsSimulation 21: R+21.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 22: R+21.4 — Merriweather winsSimulation 23: R+21.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 24: R+20.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 25: R+20.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 26: R+20.4 — Merriweather winsSimulation 27: R+20.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 28: R+19.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 29: R+19.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 30: R+19.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 31: R+19.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 32: R+19 — Merriweather winsSimulation 33: R+18.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 34: R+18.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 35: R+18.4 — Merriweather winsSimulation 36: R+18.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 37: R+17.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 38: R+17.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 39: R+17.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 40: R+17.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 41: R+17.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 42: R+16.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 43: R+16.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 44: R+16.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 45: R+16.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 46: R+16.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 47: R+15.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 48: R+15.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 49: R+15.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 50: R+15.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 51: R+15.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 52: R+14.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 53: R+14.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 54: R+14.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 55: R+14.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 56: R+14.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 57: R+13.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 58: R+13.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 59: R+13.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 60: R+13.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 61: R+13.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 62: R+12.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 63: R+12.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 64: R+12.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 65: R+12.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 66: R+12 — Merriweather winsSimulation 67: R+11.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 68: R+11.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 69: R+11.4 — Merriweather winsSimulation 70: R+11.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 71: R+10.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 72: R+10.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 73: R+10.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 74: R+10.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 75: R+10 — Merriweather winsSimulation 76: R+9.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 77: R+9.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 78: R+9.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 79: R+9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 80: R+8.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 81: R+8.4 — Merriweather winsSimulation 82: R+8.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 83: R+7.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 84: R+7.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 85: R+7.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 86: R+6.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 87: R+6.5 — Merriweather winsSimulation 88: R+6.1 — Merriweather winsSimulation 89: R+5.7 — Merriweather winsSimulation 90: R+5.3 — Merriweather winsSimulation 91: R+4.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 92: R+4.4 — Merriweather winsSimulation 93: R+3.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 94: R+3.2 — Merriweather winsSimulation 95: R+2.6 — Merriweather winsSimulation 96: R+1.8 — Merriweather winsSimulation 97: R+0.9 — Merriweather winsSimulation 98: D+0.3 — Delaine winsSimulation 99: D+1.9 — Delaine winsSimulation 100: D+5.1 — Delaine winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Delaine wins 3 of 100Merriweather wins 97

The forecast over time

One point a day
DelaineMerriweather
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Delaine 3%Merriweather 97%
Show the forecast as a table
DateDelaineMerriweatherMargin
Sep 17%93%R+15.2
Sep 87%93%R+15.1
Sep 156%94%R+15.2
Sep 226%94%R+14.8
Sep 296%94%R+15.1
Oct 65%95%R+15.3
Oct 134%96%R+15.1
Oct 204%96%R+15.3
Oct 273%97%R+15
Oct 303%97%R+15.2

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+13.8

Likely R in South C; Merriweather is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe RR+17.2

Safe R in South C. Merriweather has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
South CR+15100%R+15.2

The candidates

Open seat: Harlan Dukes (R) is not running
Marcus DelaineDemocratic · Candidate for Governor of South C
44%favorable−0.1 down this week

A state senator from the coast. The Democratic nominee for Governor of South C on November 3, 2026, against Caroline Merriweather; the seat is open.

  • Flood insurance relief
  • Teacher pay
  • Rural hospitals
Caroline MerriweatherRepublican · Candidate for Governor of South C
48%favorable−0.1 down this week

Lieutenant Governor of South C. The Republican nominee to succeed Governor Harlan Dukes on November 3, 2026, against Marcus Delaine.

  • No state income tax increase
  • Port jobs
  • Tough on crime

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 13, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±7.9 points.