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U.S. Representative for North C's 9th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 9th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Tellez is favored to win another term

Yolanda AckerlyDemocratic · Challenger
18%chance of winning
Megan TellezRepublican · Incumbent
82%chance of winning
Ackerly 44.9%Projected vote · R+8.2 ± 9.0Tellez 53.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+31.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 2: R+27.7 — Tellez winsSimulation 3: R+25.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 4: R+24.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 5: R+23.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 6: R+22.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 7: R+21.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 8: R+21.2 — Tellez winsSimulation 9: R+20.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 10: R+20 — Tellez winsSimulation 11: R+19.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 12: R+19 — Tellez winsSimulation 13: R+18.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 14: R+18.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 15: R+17.7 — Tellez winsSimulation 16: R+17.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 17: R+17 — Tellez winsSimulation 18: R+16.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 19: R+16.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 20: R+15.9 — Tellez winsSimulation 21: R+15.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 22: R+15.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 23: R+15 — Tellez winsSimulation 24: R+14.7 — Tellez winsSimulation 25: R+14.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 26: R+14.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 27: R+13.9 — Tellez winsSimulation 28: R+13.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 29: R+13.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 30: R+13 — Tellez winsSimulation 31: R+12.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 32: R+12.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 33: R+12.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 34: R+12 — Tellez winsSimulation 35: R+11.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 36: R+11.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 37: R+11.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 38: R+11.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 39: R+10.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 40: R+10.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 41: R+10.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 42: R+10.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 43: R+9.9 — Tellez winsSimulation 44: R+9.7 — Tellez winsSimulation 45: R+9.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 46: R+9.2 — Tellez winsSimulation 47: R+9 — Tellez winsSimulation 48: R+8.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 49: R+8.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 50: R+8.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 51: R+8.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 52: R+7.9 — Tellez winsSimulation 53: R+7.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 54: R+7.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 55: R+7.2 — Tellez winsSimulation 56: R+7 — Tellez winsSimulation 57: R+6.7 — Tellez winsSimulation 58: R+6.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 59: R+6.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 60: R+6 — Tellez winsSimulation 61: R+5.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 62: R+5.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 63: R+5.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 64: R+5.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 65: R+4.9 — Tellez winsSimulation 66: R+4.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 67: R+4.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 68: R+4.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 69: R+3.9 — Tellez winsSimulation 70: R+3.6 — Tellez winsSimulation 71: R+3.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 72: R+3.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 73: R+2.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 74: R+2.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 75: R+2.3 — Tellez winsSimulation 76: R+2 — Tellez winsSimulation 77: R+1.7 — Tellez winsSimulation 78: R+1.4 — Tellez winsSimulation 79: R+1.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 80: R+0.8 — Tellez winsSimulation 81: R+0.5 — Tellez winsSimulation 82: R+0.1 — Tellez winsSimulation 83: D+0.2 — Ackerly winsSimulation 84: D+0.6 — Ackerly winsSimulation 85: D+0.9 — Ackerly winsSimulation 86: D+1.3 — Ackerly winsSimulation 87: D+1.7 — Ackerly winsSimulation 88: D+2.2 — Ackerly winsSimulation 89: D+2.6 — Ackerly winsSimulation 90: D+3.1 — Ackerly winsSimulation 91: D+3.6 — Ackerly winsSimulation 92: D+4.1 — Ackerly winsSimulation 93: D+4.8 — Ackerly winsSimulation 94: D+5.4 — Ackerly winsSimulation 95: D+6.2 — Ackerly winsSimulation 96: D+7.1 — Ackerly winsSimulation 97: D+8.1 — Ackerly winsSimulation 98: D+9.4 — Ackerly winsSimulation 99: D+11.3 — Ackerly winsSimulation 100: D+15 — Ackerly winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Ackerly wins 18 of 100Tellez wins 82

The forecast over time

One point a day
AckerlyTellez
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayAckerly 18%Tellez 82%
Show the forecast as a table
DateAckerlyTellezMargin
Sep 126%74%R+7.6
Sep 2225%75%R+7.6
Oct 1320%80%R+8.6
Oct 3018%82%R+8.2

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+6.3

Lean R in North C's 9th; Tellez is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+11.1

North C's 9th: Likely R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 9thR+8100%R+8.2

The candidates

Yolanda AckerlyDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 9th District
45%favorable−0.3 down this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 9th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Megan Tellez.

Megan TellezRepublican · Incumbent
44%approve+1.1 up this week

Has represented North C's 9th District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for veterans' care; in Washington for farm credit. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Yolanda Ackerly.

  • Veterans' care
  • Farm credit

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.