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U.S. Representative for New J's 1st District
U.S. Representative for New J's 1st District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Lisowski is all but certain to win another term

Carmen LisowskiDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Kara NakagawaRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Lisowski 61.8%Projected vote · D+25.6 ± 9.0Nakagawa 36.2%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+2.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 2: D+6.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 3: D+8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 4: D+9.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 5: D+10.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 6: D+11.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 7: D+12 — Lisowski winsSimulation 8: D+12.6 — Lisowski winsSimulation 9: D+13.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 10: D+13.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 11: D+14.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 12: D+14.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 13: D+15.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 14: D+15.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 15: D+16.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 16: D+16.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 17: D+16.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 18: D+17.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 19: D+17.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 20: D+17.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 21: D+18.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 22: D+18.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 23: D+18.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 24: D+19.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 25: D+19.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 26: D+19.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 27: D+19.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 28: D+20.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 29: D+20.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 30: D+20.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 31: D+21 — Lisowski winsSimulation 32: D+21.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 33: D+21.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 34: D+21.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 35: D+22 — Lisowski winsSimulation 36: D+22.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 37: D+22.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 38: D+22.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 39: D+23 — Lisowski winsSimulation 40: D+23.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 41: D+23.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 42: D+23.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 43: D+23.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 44: D+24.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 45: D+24.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 46: D+24.6 — Lisowski winsSimulation 47: D+24.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 48: D+25 — Lisowski winsSimulation 49: D+25.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 50: D+25.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 51: D+25.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 52: D+25.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 53: D+26.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 54: D+26.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 55: D+26.6 — Lisowski winsSimulation 56: D+26.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 57: D+27.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 58: D+27.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 59: D+27.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 60: D+27.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 61: D+28 — Lisowski winsSimulation 62: D+28.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 63: D+28.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 64: D+28.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 65: D+28.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 66: D+29.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 67: D+29.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 68: D+29.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 69: D+29.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 70: D+30.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 71: D+30.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 72: D+30.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 73: D+31 — Lisowski winsSimulation 74: D+31.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 75: D+31.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 76: D+31.8 — Lisowski winsSimulation 77: D+32.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 78: D+32.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 79: D+32.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 80: D+33 — Lisowski winsSimulation 81: D+33.3 — Lisowski winsSimulation 82: D+33.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 83: D+34 — Lisowski winsSimulation 84: D+34.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 85: D+34.7 — Lisowski winsSimulation 86: D+35.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 87: D+35.5 — Lisowski winsSimulation 88: D+36 — Lisowski winsSimulation 89: D+36.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 90: D+36.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 91: D+37.4 — Lisowski winsSimulation 92: D+37.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 93: D+38.6 — Lisowski winsSimulation 94: D+39.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 95: D+40 — Lisowski winsSimulation 96: D+40.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 97: D+41.9 — Lisowski winsSimulation 98: D+43.2 — Lisowski winsSimulation 99: D+45.1 — Lisowski winsSimulation 100: D+48.8 — Lisowski winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50
Lisowski wins 100 of 100Nakagawa wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
LisowskiNakagawa
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Lisowski >99%Nakagawa <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateLisowskiNakagawaMargin
Sep 199%1%D+26.3
Sep 2299%1%D+26.4
Oct 1399%1%D+25.7
Oct 30>99%<1%D+25.6

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+26.3

Safe D in New J's 1st; Lisowski is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe DD+23.7

Safe D in New J's 1st. Nakagawa has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 1stD+22100%D+25.6

The candidates

Carmen LisowskiDemocratic · Incumbent
45%approve−0.1 down this week

Has represented New J's 1st District in the House since January 2017. Known at home for flood insurance; in Washington for lower drug prices. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Kara Nakagawa.

  • Flood insurance
  • Lower drug prices
Kara NakagawaRepublican · Candidate for New J's 1st District
46%favorable+0.4 up this week

The Republican nominee for New J's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Carmen Lisowski.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.