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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 6th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 6th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Halstead is favored to win another term

Kendra HalsteadDemocratic · Incumbent
87%chance of winning
Rachel BolanderRepublican · Challenger
13%chance of winning
Halstead 54.0%Projected vote · D+10 ± 9.0Bolander 44.0%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+13.2 — Bolander winsSimulation 2: R+9.5 — Bolander winsSimulation 3: R+7.6 — Bolander winsSimulation 4: R+6.3 — Bolander winsSimulation 5: R+5.3 — Bolander winsSimulation 6: R+4.4 — Bolander winsSimulation 7: R+3.6 — Bolander winsSimulation 8: R+3 — Bolander winsSimulation 9: R+2.3 — Bolander winsSimulation 10: R+1.8 — Bolander winsSimulation 11: R+1.3 — Bolander winsSimulation 12: R+0.8 — Bolander winsSimulation 13: R+0.4 — Bolander winsSimulation 14: D+0.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 15: D+0.5 — Halstead winsSimulation 16: D+0.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 17: D+1.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 18: D+1.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 19: D+1.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 20: D+2.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 21: D+2.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 22: D+2.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 23: D+3.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 24: D+3.5 — Halstead winsSimulation 25: D+3.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 26: D+4.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 27: D+4.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 28: D+4.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 29: D+4.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 30: D+5.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 31: D+5.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 32: D+5.7 — Halstead winsSimulation 33: D+5.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 34: D+6.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 35: D+6.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 36: D+6.7 — Halstead winsSimulation 37: D+6.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 38: D+7.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 39: D+7.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 40: D+7.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 41: D+7.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 42: D+8.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 43: D+8.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 44: D+8.5 — Halstead winsSimulation 45: D+8.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 46: D+9 — Halstead winsSimulation 47: D+9.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 48: D+9.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 49: D+9.7 — Halstead winsSimulation 50: D+9.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 51: D+10.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 52: D+10.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 53: D+10.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 54: D+10.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 55: D+11 — Halstead winsSimulation 56: D+11.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 57: D+11.5 — Halstead winsSimulation 58: D+11.7 — Halstead winsSimulation 59: D+11.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 60: D+12.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 61: D+12.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 62: D+12.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 63: D+12.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 64: D+13.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 65: D+13.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 66: D+13.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 67: D+13.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 68: D+14.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 69: D+14.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 70: D+14.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 71: D+14.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 72: D+15.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 73: D+15.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 74: D+15.7 — Halstead winsSimulation 75: D+15.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 76: D+16.2 — Halstead winsSimulation 77: D+16.5 — Halstead winsSimulation 78: D+16.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 79: D+17.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 80: D+17.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 81: D+17.7 — Halstead winsSimulation 82: D+18.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 83: D+18.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 84: D+18.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 85: D+19.1 — Halstead winsSimulation 86: D+19.5 — Halstead winsSimulation 87: D+19.9 — Halstead winsSimulation 88: D+20.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 89: D+20.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 90: D+21.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 91: D+21.8 — Halstead winsSimulation 92: D+22.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 93: D+23 — Halstead winsSimulation 94: D+23.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 95: D+24.4 — Halstead winsSimulation 96: D+25.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 97: D+26.3 — Halstead winsSimulation 98: D+27.6 — Halstead winsSimulation 99: D+29.5 — Halstead winsSimulation 100: D+33.2 — Halstead winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Halstead wins 87 of 100Bolander wins 13

The forecast over time

One point a day
HalsteadBolander
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayHalstead 87%Bolander 13%
Show the forecast as a table
DateHalsteadBolanderMargin
Sep 181%19%D+10.6
Sep 2283%17%D+10.7
Oct 1384%16%D+10.1
Oct 3087%13%D+10

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+11.9

Chicago's 6th: Likely D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Lean DD+7.9

Lean D in Chicago's 6th. Bolander has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 6thD+5100%D+10

The candidates

Kendra HalsteadDemocratic · Incumbent
54%approve+0.3 up this week

Has represented Chicago's 6th District in the House since January 2015. Known at home for public safety grants; in Washington for transit money for the district. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Rachel Bolander.

  • Public safety grants
  • Transit money for the district
Rachel BolanderRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 6th District
47%favorable+0.1 up this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 6th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Kendra Halstead.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.