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U.S. Representative for North C's 12th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 12th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Merriam is all but certain to win another term

Priya MerriamDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Valerie LachanceRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Merriam 62.9%Projected vote · D+27.9 ± 9.0Lachance 35.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+4.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 2: D+8.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 3: D+10.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 4: D+11.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 5: D+12.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 6: D+13.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 7: D+14.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 8: D+14.9 — Merriam winsSimulation 9: D+15.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 10: D+16.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 11: D+16.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 12: D+17.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 13: D+17.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 14: D+18 — Merriam winsSimulation 15: D+18.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 16: D+18.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 17: D+19.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 18: D+19.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 19: D+19.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 20: D+20.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 21: D+20.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 22: D+20.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 23: D+21.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 24: D+21.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 25: D+21.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 26: D+22 — Merriam winsSimulation 27: D+22.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 28: D+22.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 29: D+22.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 30: D+23.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 31: D+23.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 32: D+23.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 33: D+23.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 34: D+24.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 35: D+24.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 36: D+24.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 37: D+24.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 38: D+25 — Merriam winsSimulation 39: D+25.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 40: D+25.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 41: D+25.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 42: D+26 — Merriam winsSimulation 43: D+26.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 44: D+26.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 45: D+26.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 46: D+26.9 — Merriam winsSimulation 47: D+27.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 48: D+27.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 49: D+27.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 50: D+27.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 51: D+28 — Merriam winsSimulation 52: D+28.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 53: D+28.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 54: D+28.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 55: D+28.9 — Merriam winsSimulation 56: D+29.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 57: D+29.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 58: D+29.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 59: D+29.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 60: D+30.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 61: D+30.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 62: D+30.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 63: D+30.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 64: D+31 — Merriam winsSimulation 65: D+31.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 66: D+31.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 67: D+31.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 68: D+32 — Merriam winsSimulation 69: D+32.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 70: D+32.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 71: D+32.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 72: D+33 — Merriam winsSimulation 73: D+33.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 74: D+33.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 75: D+33.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 76: D+34.1 — Merriam winsSimulation 77: D+34.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 78: D+34.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 79: D+35 — Merriam winsSimulation 80: D+35.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 81: D+35.6 — Merriam winsSimulation 82: D+36 — Merriam winsSimulation 83: D+36.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 84: D+36.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 85: D+37 — Merriam winsSimulation 86: D+37.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 87: D+37.8 — Merriam winsSimulation 88: D+38.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 89: D+38.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 90: D+39.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 91: D+39.7 — Merriam winsSimulation 92: D+40.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 93: D+40.9 — Merriam winsSimulation 94: D+41.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 95: D+42.3 — Merriam winsSimulation 96: D+43.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 97: D+44.2 — Merriam winsSimulation 98: D+45.5 — Merriam winsSimulation 99: D+47.4 — Merriam winsSimulation 100: D+51.1 — Merriam winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60
Merriam wins 100 of 100Lachance wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
MerriamLachance
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Merriam >99%Lachance <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateMerriamLachanceMargin
Sep 199%1%D+28.5
Sep 2299%1%D+28
Oct 13>99%<1%D+27.5
Oct 30>99%<1%D+27.9

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+29.1

North C's 12th: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+25.9

North C's 12th: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 12thD+24100%D+27.9

The candidates

Priya MerriamDemocratic · Incumbent
47%approve+0.8 up this week

Has represented North C's 12th District in the House since January 2023. Known at home for flood insurance; in Washington for lower drug prices. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Valerie Lachance.

  • Flood insurance
  • Lower drug prices
Valerie LachanceRepublican · Candidate for North C's 12th District
46%favorable−0.2 down this week

The Republican nominee for North C's 12th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Priya Merriam.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.