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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 17th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 17th District · November 3, 2026Lean D

Bancroft is favored to win another term

Benjamin BancroftDemocratic · Incumbent
76%chance of winning
Vikram YamamotoRepublican · Challenger
24%chance of winning
Bancroft 52.2%Projected vote · D+6.4 ± 9.0Yamamoto 45.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+16.8 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 2: R+13.1 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 3: R+11.2 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 4: R+9.9 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 5: R+8.9 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 6: R+8 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 7: R+7.2 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 8: R+6.6 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 9: R+5.9 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 10: R+5.4 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 11: R+4.9 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 12: R+4.4 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 13: R+4 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 14: R+3.5 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 15: R+3.1 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 16: R+2.7 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 17: R+2.4 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 18: R+2 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 19: R+1.7 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 20: R+1.3 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 21: R+1 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 22: R+0.7 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 23: R+0.4 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 24: R+0.1 — Yamamoto winsSimulation 25: D+0.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 26: D+0.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 27: D+0.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 28: D+1 — Bancroft winsSimulation 29: D+1.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 30: D+1.6 — Bancroft winsSimulation 31: D+1.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 32: D+2.1 — Bancroft winsSimulation 33: D+2.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 34: D+2.6 — Bancroft winsSimulation 35: D+2.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 36: D+3.1 — Bancroft winsSimulation 37: D+3.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 38: D+3.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 39: D+3.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 40: D+4 — Bancroft winsSimulation 41: D+4.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 42: D+4.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 43: D+4.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 44: D+4.9 — Bancroft winsSimulation 45: D+5.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 46: D+5.4 — Bancroft winsSimulation 47: D+5.6 — Bancroft winsSimulation 48: D+5.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 49: D+6.1 — Bancroft winsSimulation 50: D+6.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 51: D+6.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 52: D+6.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 53: D+7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 54: D+7.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 55: D+7.4 — Bancroft winsSimulation 56: D+7.6 — Bancroft winsSimulation 57: D+7.9 — Bancroft winsSimulation 58: D+8.1 — Bancroft winsSimulation 59: D+8.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 60: D+8.6 — Bancroft winsSimulation 61: D+8.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 62: D+9 — Bancroft winsSimulation 63: D+9.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 64: D+9.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 65: D+9.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 66: D+10 — Bancroft winsSimulation 67: D+10.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 68: D+10.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 69: D+10.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 70: D+11 — Bancroft winsSimulation 71: D+11.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 72: D+11.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 73: D+11.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 74: D+12.1 — Bancroft winsSimulation 75: D+12.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 76: D+12.6 — Bancroft winsSimulation 77: D+12.9 — Bancroft winsSimulation 78: D+13.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 79: D+13.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 80: D+13.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 81: D+14.1 — Bancroft winsSimulation 82: D+14.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 83: D+14.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 84: D+15.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 85: D+15.5 — Bancroft winsSimulation 86: D+15.9 — Bancroft winsSimulation 87: D+16.3 — Bancroft winsSimulation 88: D+16.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 89: D+17.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 90: D+17.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 91: D+18.2 — Bancroft winsSimulation 92: D+18.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 93: D+19.4 — Bancroft winsSimulation 94: D+20 — Bancroft winsSimulation 95: D+20.8 — Bancroft winsSimulation 96: D+21.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 97: D+22.7 — Bancroft winsSimulation 98: D+24 — Bancroft winsSimulation 99: D+25.9 — Bancroft winsSimulation 100: D+29.6 — Bancroft winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
Bancroft wins 76 of 100Yamamoto wins 24

The forecast over time

One point a day
BancroftYamamoto
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayBancroft 76%Yamamoto 24%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBancroftYamamotoMargin
Sep 172%28%D+7.1
Sep 2274%26%D+7.1
Oct 1372%28%D+5.9
Oct 3076%24%D+6.4

The ratings

CNN
Lean DD+7.8

Lean D. Bancroft leads by about 8 in Penn A's 17th.

FOX News
Lean DD+4.2

Penn A's 17th: Lean D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 17thD+2100%D+6.4

The candidates

Benjamin BancroftDemocratic · Incumbent
49%approve−0.5 down this week

Has represented Penn A's 17th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for transit money for the district; in Washington for public safety grants. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Vikram Yamamoto.

  • Transit money for the district
  • Public safety grants
Vikram YamamotoRepublican · Candidate for Penn A's 17th District
46%favorable+0.9 up this week

The Republican nominee for Penn A's 17th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Benjamin Bancroft.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.