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U.S. Representative for New A's 9th District · Long Island West
U.S. Representative for New A's 9th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Brightwell is favored to win another term

Darius MansourDemocratic · Challenger
18%chance of winning
Nathan BrightwellRepublican · Incumbent
82%chance of winning
Mansour 44.8%Projected vote · R+8.4 ± 9.0Brightwell 53.2%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+31.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 2: R+27.9 — Brightwell winsSimulation 3: R+26 — Brightwell winsSimulation 4: R+24.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 5: R+23.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 6: R+22.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 7: R+22 — Brightwell winsSimulation 8: R+21.4 — Brightwell winsSimulation 9: R+20.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 10: R+20.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 11: R+19.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 12: R+19.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 13: R+18.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 14: R+18.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 15: R+17.9 — Brightwell winsSimulation 16: R+17.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 17: R+17.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 18: R+16.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 19: R+16.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 20: R+16.1 — Brightwell winsSimulation 21: R+15.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 22: R+15.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 23: R+15.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 24: R+14.9 — Brightwell winsSimulation 25: R+14.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 26: R+14.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 27: R+14.1 — Brightwell winsSimulation 28: R+13.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 29: R+13.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 30: R+13.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 31: R+13 — Brightwell winsSimulation 32: R+12.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 33: R+12.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 34: R+12.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 35: R+12 — Brightwell winsSimulation 36: R+11.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 37: R+11.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 38: R+11.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 39: R+11 — Brightwell winsSimulation 40: R+10.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 41: R+10.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 42: R+10.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 43: R+10.1 — Brightwell winsSimulation 44: R+9.9 — Brightwell winsSimulation 45: R+9.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 46: R+9.4 — Brightwell winsSimulation 47: R+9.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 48: R+9 — Brightwell winsSimulation 49: R+8.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 50: R+8.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 51: R+8.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 52: R+8.1 — Brightwell winsSimulation 53: R+7.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 54: R+7.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 55: R+7.4 — Brightwell winsSimulation 56: R+7.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 57: R+6.9 — Brightwell winsSimulation 58: R+6.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 59: R+6.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 60: R+6.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 61: R+6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 62: R+5.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 63: R+5.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 64: R+5.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 65: R+5.1 — Brightwell winsSimulation 66: R+4.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 67: R+4.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 68: R+4.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 69: R+4.1 — Brightwell winsSimulation 70: R+3.8 — Brightwell winsSimulation 71: R+3.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 72: R+3.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 73: R+3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 74: R+2.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 75: R+2.5 — Brightwell winsSimulation 76: R+2.2 — Brightwell winsSimulation 77: R+1.9 — Brightwell winsSimulation 78: R+1.6 — Brightwell winsSimulation 79: R+1.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 80: R+1 — Brightwell winsSimulation 81: R+0.7 — Brightwell winsSimulation 82: R+0.3 — Brightwell winsSimulation 83: Even — Mansour winsSimulation 84: D+0.4 — Mansour winsSimulation 85: D+0.7 — Mansour winsSimulation 86: D+1.1 — Mansour winsSimulation 87: D+1.5 — Mansour winsSimulation 88: D+2 — Mansour winsSimulation 89: D+2.4 — Mansour winsSimulation 90: D+2.9 — Mansour winsSimulation 91: D+3.4 — Mansour winsSimulation 92: D+3.9 — Mansour winsSimulation 93: D+4.6 — Mansour winsSimulation 94: D+5.2 — Mansour winsSimulation 95: D+6 — Mansour winsSimulation 96: D+6.9 — Mansour winsSimulation 97: D+7.9 — Mansour winsSimulation 98: D+9.2 — Mansour winsSimulation 99: D+11.1 — Mansour winsSimulation 100: D+14.8 — Mansour winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Mansour wins 18 of 100Brightwell wins 82

The forecast over time

One point a day
MansourBrightwell
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayMansour 18%Brightwell 82%
  1. Oct 10Interstate Highways to the West Take Shape, With Opening Slated for Early 2027R+0.4
  2. Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notR+0.3
  3. Sep 9Blakeman opens the home stretch on Soundview Avenue: “Nobody should pay nine emeralds to go to work”R+0.3
Show the forecast as a table
DateMansourBrightwellMargin
Sep 126%74%R+7.6
Sep 2225%75%R+7.5
Oct 1321%79%R+8.4
Oct 3018%82%R+8.4

The ratings

PIX 11 Long Island
Likely RR+8.3

New A's 9th: Likely R. We'll have the first returns from the island at 9:00 PM.

New A 1
Likely RR+8.6

New A's 9th — Likely R. Our borough desk sees Brightwell holding on.

CNN
Lean RR+6.5

Lean R in New A's 9th; Brightwell is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+10.6

New A's 9th: Likely R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Long Island WestR+6100%R+8.4

The candidates

Darius MansourDemocratic · Candidate for New A's 9th District
38%favorable−0.5 down this week

The Democratic nominee for New A's 9th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Nathan Brightwell.

Nathan BrightwellRepublican · Incumbent
48%approve+0.8 up this week

Has represented New A's 9th District (Long Island West) in the House since January 2025. Known at home for the highway rebuild; in Washington for broadband. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Darius Mansour.

  • The highway rebuild
  • Broadband

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.