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U.S. Senator for V Beach
U.S. Senator for V Beach · November 3, 2026Likely D

Ainsworth is clearly favored to win another term

Patricia AinsworthDemocratic · Incumbent
92%chance of winning
Grant PemberleyRepublican · Challenger
8%chance of winning
Ainsworth 54.4%Projected vote · D+10.8 ± 7.9Pemberley 43.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+9.5 — Pemberley winsSimulation 2: R+6.3 — Pemberley winsSimulation 3: R+4.7 — Pemberley winsSimulation 4: R+3.5 — Pemberley winsSimulation 5: R+2.6 — Pemberley winsSimulation 6: R+1.8 — Pemberley winsSimulation 7: R+1.2 — Pemberley winsSimulation 8: R+0.6 — Pemberley winsSimulation 9: Even — Pemberley winsSimulation 10: D+0.4 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 11: D+0.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 12: D+1.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 13: D+1.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 14: D+2.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 15: D+2.4 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 16: D+2.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 17: D+3.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 18: D+3.4 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 19: D+3.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 20: D+4 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 21: D+4.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 22: D+4.6 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 23: D+4.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 24: D+5.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 25: D+5.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 26: D+5.6 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 27: D+5.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 28: D+6.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 29: D+6.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 30: D+6.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 31: D+6.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 32: D+7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 33: D+7.2 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 34: D+7.4 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 35: D+7.6 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 36: D+7.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 37: D+8.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 38: D+8.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 39: D+8.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 40: D+8.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 41: D+8.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 42: D+9.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 43: D+9.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 44: D+9.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 45: D+9.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 46: D+9.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 47: D+10.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 48: D+10.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 49: D+10.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 50: D+10.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 51: D+10.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 52: D+11.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 53: D+11.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 54: D+11.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 55: D+11.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 56: D+11.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 57: D+12.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 58: D+12.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 59: D+12.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 60: D+12.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 61: D+12.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 62: D+13.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 63: D+13.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 64: D+13.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 65: D+13.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 66: D+14 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 67: D+14.2 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 68: D+14.4 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 69: D+14.6 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 70: D+14.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 71: D+15.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 72: D+15.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 73: D+15.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 74: D+15.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 75: D+16 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 76: D+16.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 77: D+16.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 78: D+16.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 79: D+17 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 80: D+17.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 81: D+17.6 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 82: D+17.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 83: D+18.2 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 84: D+18.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 85: D+18.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 86: D+19.2 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 87: D+19.5 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 88: D+19.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 89: D+20.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 90: D+20.7 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 91: D+21.2 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 92: D+21.6 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 93: D+22.2 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 94: D+22.8 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 95: D+23.4 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 96: D+24.2 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 97: D+25.1 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 98: D+26.3 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 99: D+27.9 — Ainsworth winsSimulation 100: D+31.1 — Ainsworth winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Ainsworth wins 91 of 100Pemberley wins 9

The forecast over time

One point a day
AinsworthPemberley
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Ainsworth 92%Pemberley 8%
Show the forecast as a table
DateAinsworthPemberleyMargin
Sep 187%13%D+11.9
Sep 886%14%D+11.2
Sep 1586%14%D+11
Sep 2288%12%D+11.6
Sep 2988%12%D+11.1
Oct 689%11%D+11.1
Oct 1389%11%D+10.8
Oct 2090%10%D+10.9
Oct 2792%8%D+11.6
Oct 3092%8%D+10.8

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+12.2

V Beach: Likely D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Likely DD+8.1

Likely D in V Beach. Pemberley has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
V BeachD+5100%D+10.8

The candidates

Patricia AinsworthDemocratic · Incumbent
51%approve−0.5 down this week

V Beach's senior senator since January 2009. A former tech investor who made the Intelligence Committee's tech subcommittee her own. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Grant Pemberley.

  • Broadband everywhere
  • Cybersecurity
  • Federal jobs
Grant PemberleyRepublican · Candidate for the U.S. Senate in V Beach
43%favorable+0.5 up this week

A retired admiral. The Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in V Beach on November 3, 2026, against Senator Patricia Ainsworth.

  • Shipbuilding
  • Cut federal waste
  • Veterans first

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±7.9 points.