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U.S. Representative for South C's 1st District
U.S. Representative for South C's 1st District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Brightman is favored to win another term

Irene BjornstadDemocratic · Challenger
16%chance of winning
Imani BrightmanRepublican · Incumbent
84%chance of winning
Bjornstad 44.5%Projected vote · R+9 ± 9.0Brightman 53.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+32.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 2: R+28.5 — Brightman winsSimulation 3: R+26.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 4: R+25.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 5: R+24.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 6: R+23.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 7: R+22.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 8: R+22 — Brightman winsSimulation 9: R+21.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 10: R+20.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 11: R+20.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 12: R+19.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 13: R+19.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 14: R+18.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 15: R+18.5 — Brightman winsSimulation 16: R+18.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 17: R+17.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 18: R+17.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 19: R+17.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 20: R+16.7 — Brightman winsSimulation 21: R+16.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 22: R+16.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 23: R+15.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 24: R+15.5 — Brightman winsSimulation 25: R+15.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 26: R+14.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 27: R+14.7 — Brightman winsSimulation 28: R+14.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 29: R+14.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 30: R+13.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 31: R+13.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 32: R+13.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 33: R+13.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 34: R+12.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 35: R+12.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 36: R+12.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 37: R+12.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 38: R+11.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 39: R+11.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 40: R+11.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 41: R+11.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 42: R+10.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 43: R+10.7 — Brightman winsSimulation 44: R+10.5 — Brightman winsSimulation 45: R+10.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 46: R+10 — Brightman winsSimulation 47: R+9.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 48: R+9.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 49: R+9.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 50: R+9.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 51: R+8.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 52: R+8.7 — Brightman winsSimulation 53: R+8.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 54: R+8.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 55: R+8 — Brightman winsSimulation 56: R+7.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 57: R+7.5 — Brightman winsSimulation 58: R+7.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 59: R+7.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 60: R+6.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 61: R+6.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 62: R+6.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 63: R+6.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 64: R+5.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 65: R+5.7 — Brightman winsSimulation 66: R+5.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 67: R+5.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 68: R+4.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 69: R+4.7 — Brightman winsSimulation 70: R+4.4 — Brightman winsSimulation 71: R+4.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 72: R+3.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 73: R+3.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 74: R+3.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 75: R+3.1 — Brightman winsSimulation 76: R+2.8 — Brightman winsSimulation 77: R+2.5 — Brightman winsSimulation 78: R+2.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 79: R+1.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 80: R+1.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 81: R+1.3 — Brightman winsSimulation 82: R+0.9 — Brightman winsSimulation 83: R+0.6 — Brightman winsSimulation 84: R+0.2 — Brightman winsSimulation 85: D+0.1 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 86: D+0.5 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 87: D+0.9 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 88: D+1.4 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 89: D+1.8 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 90: D+2.3 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 91: D+2.8 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 92: D+3.3 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 93: D+4 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 94: D+4.6 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 95: D+5.4 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 96: D+6.3 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 97: D+7.3 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 98: D+8.6 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 99: D+10.5 — Bjornstad winsSimulation 100: D+14.2 — Bjornstad winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Bjornstad wins 16 of 100Brightman wins 84

The forecast over time

One point a day
BjornstadBrightman
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayBjornstad 16%Brightman 84%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBjornstadBrightmanMargin
Sep 124%76%R+8.5
Sep 2222%78%R+8.4
Oct 1319%81%R+9.1
Oct 3016%84%R+9

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+7.2

Lean R in South C's 1st; Brightman is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+11.5

Likely R. South C's 1st voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
South C 1stR+8100%R+9

The candidates

Irene BjornstadDemocratic · Candidate for South C's 1st District
46%favorable−0.3 down this week

The Democratic nominee for South C's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Imani Brightman.

Imani BrightmanRepublican · Incumbent
49%approve−1.3 down this week

Has represented South C's 1st District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for the factory reopening; in Washington for school funding. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Irene Bjornstad.

  • The factory reopening
  • School funding

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.