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U.S. Representative for South C's 2nd District
U.S. Representative for South C's 2nd District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Kristiansen is clearly favored to win another term

Wendell YoungbloodDemocratic · Challenger
8%chance of winning
Nathan KristiansenRepublican · Incumbent
92%chance of winning
Youngblood 42.5%Projected vote · R+12.9 ± 9.0Kristiansen 55.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+36.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 2: R+32.4 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 3: R+30.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 4: R+29.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 5: R+28.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 6: R+27.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 7: R+26.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 8: R+25.9 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 9: R+25.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 10: R+24.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 11: R+24.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 12: R+23.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 13: R+23.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 14: R+22.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 15: R+22.4 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 16: R+22 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 17: R+21.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 18: R+21.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 19: R+21 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 20: R+20.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 21: R+20.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 22: R+20 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 23: R+19.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 24: R+19.4 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 25: R+19.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 26: R+18.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 27: R+18.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 28: R+18.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 29: R+18 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 30: R+17.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 31: R+17.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 32: R+17.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 33: R+17 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 34: R+16.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 35: R+16.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 36: R+16.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 37: R+16 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 38: R+15.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 39: R+15.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 40: R+15.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 41: R+15.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 42: R+14.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 43: R+14.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 44: R+14.4 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 45: R+14.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 46: R+13.9 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 47: R+13.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 48: R+13.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 49: R+13.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 50: R+13 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 51: R+12.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 52: R+12.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 53: R+12.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 54: R+12.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 55: R+11.9 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 56: R+11.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 57: R+11.4 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 58: R+11.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 59: R+11 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 60: R+10.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 61: R+10.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 62: R+10.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 63: R+10 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 64: R+9.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 65: R+9.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 66: R+9.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 67: R+9.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 68: R+8.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 69: R+8.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 70: R+8.3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 71: R+8.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 72: R+7.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 73: R+7.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 74: R+7.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 75: R+7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 76: R+6.7 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 77: R+6.4 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 78: R+6.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 79: R+5.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 80: R+5.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 81: R+5.2 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 82: R+4.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 83: R+4.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 84: R+4.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 85: R+3.8 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 86: R+3.4 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 87: R+3 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 88: R+2.5 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 89: R+2.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 90: R+1.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 91: R+1.1 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 92: R+0.6 — Kristiansen winsSimulation 93: D+0.1 — Youngblood winsSimulation 94: D+0.7 — Youngblood winsSimulation 95: D+1.5 — Youngblood winsSimulation 96: D+2.4 — Youngblood winsSimulation 97: D+3.4 — Youngblood winsSimulation 98: D+4.7 — Youngblood winsSimulation 99: D+6.6 — Youngblood winsSimulation 100: D+10.3 — Youngblood winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Youngblood wins 8 of 100Kristiansen wins 92

The forecast over time

One point a day
YoungbloodKristiansen
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Youngblood 8%Kristiansen 92%
Show the forecast as a table
DateYoungbloodKristiansenMargin
Sep 114%86%R+12.6
Sep 2214%86%R+12.2
Oct 1310%90%R+13.1
Oct 308%92%R+12.9

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+11

Likely R in South C's 2nd; Kristiansen is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe RR+15.3

Safe R in South C's 2nd. Kristiansen has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
South C 2ndR+12100%R+12.9

The candidates

Wendell YoungbloodDemocratic · Candidate for South C's 2nd District
40%favorable+0.7 up this week

The Democratic nominee for South C's 2nd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Nathan Kristiansen.

Nathan KristiansenRepublican · Incumbent
44%approve+0.6 up this week

Has represented South C's 2nd District in the House since January 2023. Known at home for the highway rebuild; in Washington for broadband. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Wendell Youngblood.

  • The highway rebuild
  • Broadband

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.