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U.S. Representative for New J's 3rd District
U.S. Representative for New J's 3rd District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Wainwright is favored to win another term

Andrea WainwrightDemocratic · Incumbent
84%chance of winning
Margaret CvetkovicRepublican · Challenger
16%chance of winning
Wainwright 53.4%Projected vote · D+8.8 ± 9.0Cvetkovic 44.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+14.4 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 2: R+10.7 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 3: R+8.8 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 4: R+7.5 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 5: R+6.5 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 6: R+5.6 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 7: R+4.8 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 8: R+4.2 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 9: R+3.5 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 10: R+3 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 11: R+2.5 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 12: R+2 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 13: R+1.6 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 14: R+1.1 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 15: R+0.7 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 16: R+0.3 — Cvetkovic winsSimulation 17: Even — Wainwright winsSimulation 18: D+0.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 19: D+0.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 20: D+1.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 21: D+1.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 22: D+1.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 23: D+2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 24: D+2.3 — Wainwright winsSimulation 25: D+2.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 26: D+2.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 27: D+3.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 28: D+3.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 29: D+3.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 30: D+4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 31: D+4.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 32: D+4.5 — Wainwright winsSimulation 33: D+4.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 34: D+5 — Wainwright winsSimulation 35: D+5.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 36: D+5.5 — Wainwright winsSimulation 37: D+5.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 38: D+5.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 39: D+6.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 40: D+6.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 41: D+6.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 42: D+6.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 43: D+7.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 44: D+7.3 — Wainwright winsSimulation 45: D+7.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 46: D+7.8 — Wainwright winsSimulation 47: D+8 — Wainwright winsSimulation 48: D+8.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 49: D+8.5 — Wainwright winsSimulation 50: D+8.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 51: D+8.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 52: D+9.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 53: D+9.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 54: D+9.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 55: D+9.8 — Wainwright winsSimulation 56: D+10 — Wainwright winsSimulation 57: D+10.3 — Wainwright winsSimulation 58: D+10.5 — Wainwright winsSimulation 59: D+10.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 60: D+11 — Wainwright winsSimulation 61: D+11.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 62: D+11.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 63: D+11.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 64: D+11.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 65: D+12.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 66: D+12.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 67: D+12.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 68: D+12.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 69: D+13.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 70: D+13.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 71: D+13.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 72: D+13.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 73: D+14.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 74: D+14.5 — Wainwright winsSimulation 75: D+14.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 76: D+15 — Wainwright winsSimulation 77: D+15.3 — Wainwright winsSimulation 78: D+15.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 79: D+15.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 80: D+16.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 81: D+16.5 — Wainwright winsSimulation 82: D+16.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 83: D+17.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 84: D+17.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 85: D+17.9 — Wainwright winsSimulation 86: D+18.3 — Wainwright winsSimulation 87: D+18.7 — Wainwright winsSimulation 88: D+19.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 89: D+19.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 90: D+20.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 91: D+20.6 — Wainwright winsSimulation 92: D+21.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 93: D+21.8 — Wainwright winsSimulation 94: D+22.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 95: D+23.2 — Wainwright winsSimulation 96: D+24.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 97: D+25.1 — Wainwright winsSimulation 98: D+26.4 — Wainwright winsSimulation 99: D+28.3 — Wainwright winsSimulation 100: D+32 — Wainwright winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Wainwright wins 84 of 100Cvetkovic wins 16

The forecast over time

One point a day
WainwrightCvetkovic
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayWainwright 84%Cvetkovic 16%
Show the forecast as a table
DateWainwrightCvetkovicMargin
Sep 178%22%D+9.4
Sep 2281%19%D+9.7
Oct 1380%20%D+8.8
Oct 3084%16%D+8.8

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+10.4

Likely D. Wainwright leads by about 10 in New J's 3rd.

FOX News
Lean DD+7.6

Lean D. New J's 3rd voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 3rdD+5100%D+8.8

The candidates

Andrea WainwrightDemocratic · Incumbent
43%approve+0.4 up this week

Has represented New J's 3rd District in the House since January 2017. Known at home for child care; in Washington for the commuter line. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Margaret Cvetkovic.

  • Child care
  • The commuter line
Margaret CvetkovicRepublican · Candidate for New J's 3rd District
43%favorable−0.2 down this week

The Republican nominee for New J's 3rd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Andrea Wainwright.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.