U.S. Representative for Penn A's 7th District · November 3, 2026 Lean R
Camacho is slightly favored to win another term
Leah Molnar Democratic · Challenger
28% chance of winning
Kara Camacho Republican · Incumbent
72% chance of winning
28% 72%
Molnar 46.3% Projected vote · R+5.4 ± 9.0 Camacho 51.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+28.6 — Camacho wins Simulation 2: R+24.9 — Camacho wins Simulation 3: R+23 — Camacho wins Simulation 4: R+21.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 5: R+20.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 6: R+19.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 7: R+19 — Camacho wins Simulation 8: R+18.4 — Camacho wins Simulation 9: R+17.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 10: R+17.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 11: R+16.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 12: R+16.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 13: R+15.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 14: R+15.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 15: R+14.9 — Camacho wins Simulation 16: R+14.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 17: R+14.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 18: R+13.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 19: R+13.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 20: R+13.1 — Camacho wins Simulation 21: R+12.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 22: R+12.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 23: R+12.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 24: R+11.9 — Camacho wins Simulation 25: R+11.6 — Camacho wins Simulation 26: R+11.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 27: R+11.1 — Camacho wins Simulation 28: R+10.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 29: R+10.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 30: R+10.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 31: R+10 — Camacho wins Simulation 32: R+9.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 33: R+9.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 34: R+9.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 35: R+9 — Camacho wins Simulation 36: R+8.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 37: R+8.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 38: R+8.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 39: R+8 — Camacho wins Simulation 40: R+7.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 41: R+7.6 — Camacho wins Simulation 42: R+7.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 43: R+7.1 — Camacho wins Simulation 44: R+6.9 — Camacho wins Simulation 45: R+6.6 — Camacho wins Simulation 46: R+6.4 — Camacho wins Simulation 47: R+6.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 48: R+6 — Camacho wins Simulation 49: R+5.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 50: R+5.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 51: R+5.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 52: R+5.1 — Camacho wins Simulation 53: R+4.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 54: R+4.6 — Camacho wins Simulation 55: R+4.4 — Camacho wins Simulation 56: R+4.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 57: R+3.9 — Camacho wins Simulation 58: R+3.7 — Camacho wins Simulation 59: R+3.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 60: R+3.2 — Camacho wins Simulation 61: R+3 — Camacho wins Simulation 62: R+2.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 63: R+2.5 — Camacho wins Simulation 64: R+2.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 65: R+2.1 — Camacho wins Simulation 66: R+1.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 67: R+1.6 — Camacho wins Simulation 68: R+1.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 69: R+1.1 — Camacho wins Simulation 70: R+0.8 — Camacho wins Simulation 71: R+0.6 — Camacho wins Simulation 72: R+0.3 — Camacho wins Simulation 73: Even — Camacho wins Simulation 74: D+0.3 — Molnar wins Simulation 75: D+0.5 — Molnar wins Simulation 76: D+0.8 — Molnar wins Simulation 77: D+1.1 — Molnar wins Simulation 78: D+1.4 — Molnar wins Simulation 79: D+1.7 — Molnar wins Simulation 80: D+2 — Molnar wins Simulation 81: D+2.3 — Molnar wins Simulation 82: D+2.7 — Molnar wins Simulation 83: D+3 — Molnar wins Simulation 84: D+3.4 — Molnar wins Simulation 85: D+3.7 — Molnar wins Simulation 86: D+4.1 — Molnar wins Simulation 87: D+4.5 — Molnar wins Simulation 88: D+5 — Molnar wins Simulation 89: D+5.4 — Molnar wins Simulation 90: D+5.9 — Molnar wins Simulation 91: D+6.4 — Molnar wins Simulation 92: D+6.9 — Molnar wins Simulation 93: D+7.6 — Molnar wins Simulation 94: D+8.2 — Molnar wins Simulation 95: D+9 — Molnar wins Simulation 96: D+9.9 — Molnar wins Simulation 97: D+10.9 — Molnar wins Simulation 98: D+12.2 — Molnar wins Simulation 99: D+14.1 — Molnar wins Simulation 100: D+17.8 — Molnar wins R+30 R+20 R+10 Even D+10 D+20 Molnar wins 27 of 100Camacho wins 73