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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 8th District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 8th District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Tamura is slightly favored to win another term

Julian BanerjeeDemocratic · Challenger
28%chance of winning
Dmitri TamuraRepublican · Incumbent
72%chance of winning
Banerjee 46.3%Projected vote · R+5.3 ± 9.0Tamura 51.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+28.5 — Tamura winsSimulation 2: R+24.8 — Tamura winsSimulation 3: R+22.9 — Tamura winsSimulation 4: R+21.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 5: R+20.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 6: R+19.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 7: R+18.9 — Tamura winsSimulation 8: R+18.3 — Tamura winsSimulation 9: R+17.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 10: R+17.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 11: R+16.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 12: R+16.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 13: R+15.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 14: R+15.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 15: R+14.8 — Tamura winsSimulation 16: R+14.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 17: R+14.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 18: R+13.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 19: R+13.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 20: R+13 — Tamura winsSimulation 21: R+12.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 22: R+12.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 23: R+12.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 24: R+11.8 — Tamura winsSimulation 25: R+11.5 — Tamura winsSimulation 26: R+11.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 27: R+11 — Tamura winsSimulation 28: R+10.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 29: R+10.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 30: R+10.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 31: R+9.9 — Tamura winsSimulation 32: R+9.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 33: R+9.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 34: R+9.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 35: R+8.9 — Tamura winsSimulation 36: R+8.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 37: R+8.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 38: R+8.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 39: R+7.9 — Tamura winsSimulation 40: R+7.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 41: R+7.5 — Tamura winsSimulation 42: R+7.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 43: R+7 — Tamura winsSimulation 44: R+6.8 — Tamura winsSimulation 45: R+6.5 — Tamura winsSimulation 46: R+6.3 — Tamura winsSimulation 47: R+6.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 48: R+5.9 — Tamura winsSimulation 49: R+5.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 50: R+5.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 51: R+5.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 52: R+5 — Tamura winsSimulation 53: R+4.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 54: R+4.5 — Tamura winsSimulation 55: R+4.3 — Tamura winsSimulation 56: R+4.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 57: R+3.8 — Tamura winsSimulation 58: R+3.6 — Tamura winsSimulation 59: R+3.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 60: R+3.1 — Tamura winsSimulation 61: R+2.9 — Tamura winsSimulation 62: R+2.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 63: R+2.4 — Tamura winsSimulation 64: R+2.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 65: R+2 — Tamura winsSimulation 66: R+1.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 67: R+1.5 — Tamura winsSimulation 68: R+1.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 69: R+1 — Tamura winsSimulation 70: R+0.7 — Tamura winsSimulation 71: R+0.5 — Tamura winsSimulation 72: R+0.2 — Tamura winsSimulation 73: D+0.1 — Banerjee winsSimulation 74: D+0.4 — Banerjee winsSimulation 75: D+0.6 — Banerjee winsSimulation 76: D+0.9 — Banerjee winsSimulation 77: D+1.2 — Banerjee winsSimulation 78: D+1.5 — Banerjee winsSimulation 79: D+1.8 — Banerjee winsSimulation 80: D+2.1 — Banerjee winsSimulation 81: D+2.4 — Banerjee winsSimulation 82: D+2.8 — Banerjee winsSimulation 83: D+3.1 — Banerjee winsSimulation 84: D+3.5 — Banerjee winsSimulation 85: D+3.8 — Banerjee winsSimulation 86: D+4.2 — Banerjee winsSimulation 87: D+4.6 — Banerjee winsSimulation 88: D+5.1 — Banerjee winsSimulation 89: D+5.5 — Banerjee winsSimulation 90: D+6 — Banerjee winsSimulation 91: D+6.5 — Banerjee winsSimulation 92: D+7 — Banerjee winsSimulation 93: D+7.7 — Banerjee winsSimulation 94: D+8.3 — Banerjee winsSimulation 95: D+9.1 — Banerjee winsSimulation 96: D+10 — Banerjee winsSimulation 97: D+11 — Banerjee winsSimulation 98: D+12.3 — Banerjee winsSimulation 99: D+14.2 — Banerjee winsSimulation 100: D+17.9 — Banerjee winsR+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Banerjee wins 28 of 100Tamura wins 72

The forecast over time

One point a day
BanerjeeTamura
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayBanerjee 28%Tamura 72%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBanerjeeTamuraMargin
Sep 133%67%R+5.2
Sep 2233%67%R+4.8
Oct 1329%71%R+5.6
Oct 3028%72%R+5.3

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+4

Penn A's 8th: Lean R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Lean RR+7.2

Penn A's 8th: Lean R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 8thR+5100%R+5.3

The candidates

Julian BanerjeeDemocratic · Candidate for Penn A's 8th District
46%favorable+0.8 up this week

The Democratic nominee for Penn A's 8th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Dmitri Tamura.

Dmitri TamuraRepublican · Incumbent
46%approve+0.4 up this week

Has represented Penn A's 8th District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for the highway rebuild; in Washington for broadband. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Julian Banerjee.

  • The highway rebuild
  • Broadband

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.