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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 12th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 12th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Lockhart is all but certain to win another term

Sean Abernethy-ColeDemocratic · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Dmitri LockhartRepublican · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Abernethy-Cole 36.9%Projected vote · R+24.2 ± 9.0Lockhart 61.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+47.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 2: R+43.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 3: R+41.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 4: R+40.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 5: R+39.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 6: R+38.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 7: R+37.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 8: R+37.2 — Lockhart winsSimulation 9: R+36.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 10: R+36 — Lockhart winsSimulation 11: R+35.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 12: R+35 — Lockhart winsSimulation 13: R+34.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 14: R+34.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 15: R+33.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 16: R+33.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 17: R+33 — Lockhart winsSimulation 18: R+32.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 19: R+32.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 20: R+31.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 21: R+31.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 22: R+31.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 23: R+31 — Lockhart winsSimulation 24: R+30.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 25: R+30.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 26: R+30.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 27: R+29.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 28: R+29.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 29: R+29.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 30: R+29 — Lockhart winsSimulation 31: R+28.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 32: R+28.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 33: R+28.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 34: R+28 — Lockhart winsSimulation 35: R+27.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 36: R+27.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 37: R+27.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 38: R+27.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 39: R+26.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 40: R+26.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 41: R+26.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 42: R+26.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 43: R+25.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 44: R+25.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 45: R+25.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 46: R+25.2 — Lockhart winsSimulation 47: R+25 — Lockhart winsSimulation 48: R+24.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 49: R+24.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 50: R+24.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 51: R+24.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 52: R+23.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 53: R+23.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 54: R+23.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 55: R+23.2 — Lockhart winsSimulation 56: R+23 — Lockhart winsSimulation 57: R+22.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 58: R+22.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 59: R+22.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 60: R+22 — Lockhart winsSimulation 61: R+21.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 62: R+21.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 63: R+21.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 64: R+21.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 65: R+20.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 66: R+20.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 67: R+20.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 68: R+20.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 69: R+19.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 70: R+19.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 71: R+19.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 72: R+19.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 73: R+18.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 74: R+18.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 75: R+18.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 76: R+18 — Lockhart winsSimulation 77: R+17.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 78: R+17.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 79: R+17.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 80: R+16.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 81: R+16.5 — Lockhart winsSimulation 82: R+16.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 83: R+15.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 84: R+15.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 85: R+15.1 — Lockhart winsSimulation 86: R+14.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 87: R+14.3 — Lockhart winsSimulation 88: R+13.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 89: R+13.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 90: R+12.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 91: R+12.4 — Lockhart winsSimulation 92: R+11.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 93: R+11.2 — Lockhart winsSimulation 94: R+10.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 95: R+9.8 — Lockhart winsSimulation 96: R+8.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 97: R+7.9 — Lockhart winsSimulation 98: R+6.6 — Lockhart winsSimulation 99: R+4.7 — Lockhart winsSimulation 100: R+1 — Lockhart winsR+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Abernethy-Cole wins 0 of 100Lockhart wins 100

The forecast over time

One point a day
Abernethy-ColeLockhart
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Abernethy-Cole <1%Lockhart >99%
Show the forecast as a table
DateAbernethy-ColeLockhartMargin
Sep 12%98%R+23.7
Sep 222%98%R+23.6
Oct 131%99%R+24.4
Oct 30<1%>99%R+24.2

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+23.2

Safe R in Chicago's 12th; Lockhart is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe RR+27.1

Safe R in Chicago's 12th. Lockhart has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 12thR+22100%R+24.2

The candidates

Sean Abernethy-ColeDemocratic · Candidate for Chicago's 12th District
42%favorable+0.8 up this week

The Democratic nominee for Chicago's 12th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Dmitri Lockhart.

Dmitri LockhartRepublican · Incumbent
51%approve+1.3 up this week

Has represented Chicago's 12th District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for the highway rebuild; in Washington for broadband. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Sean Abernethy-Cole.

  • The highway rebuild
  • Broadband

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.