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U.S. Representative for North C's 2nd District
U.S. Representative for North C's 2nd District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Kaplan is all but certain to win another term

Terrence KaplanDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Alejandro MaxfieldRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Kaplan 61.5%Projected vote · D+25 ± 9.0Maxfield 36.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+1.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 2: D+5.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 3: D+7.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 4: D+8.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 5: D+9.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 6: D+10.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 7: D+11.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 8: D+12 — Kaplan winsSimulation 9: D+12.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 10: D+13.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 11: D+13.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 12: D+14.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 13: D+14.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 14: D+15.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 15: D+15.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 16: D+15.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 17: D+16.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 18: D+16.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 19: D+16.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 20: D+17.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 21: D+17.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 22: D+17.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 23: D+18.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 24: D+18.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 25: D+18.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 26: D+19.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 27: D+19.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 28: D+19.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 29: D+19.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 30: D+20.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 31: D+20.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 32: D+20.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 33: D+20.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 34: D+21.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 35: D+21.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 36: D+21.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 37: D+21.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 38: D+22.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 39: D+22.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 40: D+22.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 41: D+22.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 42: D+23.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 43: D+23.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 44: D+23.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 45: D+23.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 46: D+24 — Kaplan winsSimulation 47: D+24.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 48: D+24.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 49: D+24.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 50: D+24.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 51: D+25.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 52: D+25.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 53: D+25.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 54: D+25.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 55: D+26 — Kaplan winsSimulation 56: D+26.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 57: D+26.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 58: D+26.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 59: D+26.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 60: D+27.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 61: D+27.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 62: D+27.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 63: D+27.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 64: D+28.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 65: D+28.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 66: D+28.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 67: D+28.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 68: D+29.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 69: D+29.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 70: D+29.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 71: D+29.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 72: D+30.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 73: D+30.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 74: D+30.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 75: D+30.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 76: D+31.2 — Kaplan winsSimulation 77: D+31.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 78: D+31.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 79: D+32.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 80: D+32.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 81: D+32.7 — Kaplan winsSimulation 82: D+33.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 83: D+33.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 84: D+33.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 85: D+34.1 — Kaplan winsSimulation 86: D+34.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 87: D+34.9 — Kaplan winsSimulation 88: D+35.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 89: D+35.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 90: D+36.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 91: D+36.8 — Kaplan winsSimulation 92: D+37.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 93: D+38 — Kaplan winsSimulation 94: D+38.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 95: D+39.4 — Kaplan winsSimulation 96: D+40.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 97: D+41.3 — Kaplan winsSimulation 98: D+42.6 — Kaplan winsSimulation 99: D+44.5 — Kaplan winsSimulation 100: D+48.2 — Kaplan winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50
Kaplan wins 100 of 100Maxfield wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
KaplanMaxfield
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Kaplan >99%Maxfield <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateKaplanMaxfieldMargin
Sep 198%2%D+25.5
Sep 2299%1%D+25.6
Oct 1399%1%D+24.8
Oct 30>99%<1%D+25

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+26

Safe D in North C's 2nd; Kaplan is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe DD+22.3

Safe D. North C's 2nd voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 2ndD+20100%D+25

The candidates

Terrence KaplanDemocratic · Incumbent
53%approve−0.2 down this week

Has represented North C's 2nd District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for school funding; in Washington for the factory reopening. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Alejandro Maxfield.

  • School funding
  • The factory reopening
Alejandro MaxfieldRepublican · Candidate for North C's 2nd District
46%favorable+1.3 up this week

The Republican nominee for North C's 2nd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Terrence Kaplan.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.