State · the Union
New A
Lean D+9Parody
The State of New A — the Governor’s jurisdiction; owns the Metro.
Partisan lean
D+9
Turnout-weighted, five boroughsGovernor
Democratic
Kathy Hochul · 51% approveSenate
2 D · 0 R
Kessler · OseiHouse
5 D · 4 R
9 seatsOn the ballot
November 3, 2026Governor · New A
Kathy HochulD · Incumbent89%
Bruce BlakemanR11%
D+9.6Likely D
The ratings
- New A modelFundamentals, the news and 4 polls (average D+8.7)D+9.6Likely D
- PIX 11 Long IslandWatch the island early. If Blakeman doesn't run up R+9 or better out here, call it a night.D+7.5Lean D
- New A 1Borough by borough: Hochul carries 3 of 5. Long Island is where the night turns.D+10.5Likely D
- CNNLikely D — Hochul up 11. Our decision desk will be watching the late count closely.D+10.9Likely D
- FOX NewsLean D. The coastal pundits have Hochul cruising — the kitchen-table numbers say otherwise.D+6.6Lean D
Who represents New A
Approval moves with news about New AGovernor of the State of New A
Kathy Hochul Parody
51%+1.5 up this week
Senior U.S. Senator · Class 1
Miriam Kessler
51%0.0 unchanged this week
Junior U.S. Senator · Class 3
Raymond Osei
50%+0.2 up this week
Mayor of New A City
Zohran Mamdani Parody
60%−0.1 down this week
Long Island Executive
Bruce Blakeman Parody
46%+2.4 up this week
Council member, Man A
Oliver Le Seur
55%−1.1 down this week
House delegation
9 seats · every seat is up Nov 3, 2026Carlos KaszubaNA-1 · Lower Man AD52%−0.1 down this weekSafe DGloria ArceneauxNA-2 · Central & Midtown Man AD54%−1.9 down this weekSafe DTerrence SinclairNA-3 · Downtown New BKD46%+1.0 up this weekSafe DRebecca PachecoNA-4 · Progress Heights & the New BK waterfrontD50%+0.9 up this weekSafe DJamal TownsendNA-5 · Mill Bergen & Flatbush (southern New BK)R52%+0.9 up this weekLikely RImani ZubiriNA-6 · The BXD50%0.0 unchanged this weekSafe DReggie MarchandNA-7 · New SR46%+1.6 up this weekSafe RPriya AlbrechtNA-8 · Long Island EastR52%−0.5 down this weekLikely RNathan BrightwellNA-9 · Long Island WestR48%+0.8 up this weekLikely R
House races
Forecast for every seat · open seats markedHouse · New A 1st
Carlos KaszubaD · Incumbent>99%
Owen DevereauxR<1%
D+44Safe D
House · New A 2nd
Gloria ArceneauxD · Incumbent>99%
Elena BabcockR<1%
D+39.4Safe D
House · New A 3rd
Terrence SinclairD · Incumbent>99%
Carlos ReinholtR<1%
D+32.4Safe D
House · New A 4th
Rebecca PachecoD · Incumbent>99%
Andrea LlewellynR<1%
D+26.2Safe D
House · New A 5th
Alejandro BallantyneD11%
Jamal TownsendR · Incumbent89%
R+11.3Likely R
House · New A 6th
Imani ZubiriD · Incumbent>99%
Gloria MoriR<1%
D+31.5Safe D
House · New A 7th
Tobias KapoorD<1%
Reggie MarchandR · Incumbent>99%
R+27.4Safe R
House · New A 8th
Adaeze MendelsohnD6%
Priya AlbrechtR · Incumbent94%
R+14.1Likely R
House · New A 9th
Darius MansourD18%
Nathan BrightwellR · Incumbent82%
R+8.4Likely R
Stories that moved New A's officials
Effect today, after decay- Kings Plaza opens in Mill Bergen: New A's largest mall, a four-story garage and a new bus terminal on Avenue UOct 28, 2026 · Press Office · Kathy Hochul +0.9 · Zohran Mamdani +1.9 · Terrence Sinclair +0.8 · Rebecca Pacheco +0.8 · +1 more+1.0avg. per official
- Kings Plaza Is Finally Open, and the Credit Belongs to Anthropic, Not City HallOct 28, 2026 · FOX News · Kathy Hochul −0.9 · Zohran Mamdani −1.4 · Bruce Blakeman +1.4−0.3avg. per official
- Kings Plaza's Four-Story Garage Ends Mill Bergen's Parking Drought. Its Bus Terminal Tests Whether Anyone Leaves the CarOct 28, 2026 · CNN · Kathy Hochul +0.5 · Zohran Mamdani +0.9+0.7avg. per official
- Interstate Highways to the West Take Shape, With Opening Slated for Early 2027Oct 10, 2026 · CNN · Kathy Hochul +0.5 · Zohran Mamdani +0.5 · Priya Albrecht +0.1 · Nathan Brightwell +0.1+0.3avg. per official
- CNN poll: Hochul leads Blakeman by 12 in New A, but the toll divides the state almost evenlyOct 1, 2026 · CNN · Kathy Hochul +0.4 · Bruce Blakeman −0.2 · Miriam Kessler +0.3 · Raymond Osei +0.3+0.2avg. per official
- The pump next door: Church Avenue's OP Gas station fears Kings Plaza will price it out of Mill BergenOct 28, 2026 · New A 1 · Zohran Mamdani −0.9−0.9avg. per official
- FOX News poll: Blakeman within six as affordability tops voters’ worries in New AOct 4, 2026 · FOX News · Bruce Blakeman +0.4 · Miriam Kessler +0.1 · Raymond Osei +0.1 · Reggie Marchand +0.1 · +2 more+0.1avg. per official
- New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notSep 14, 2026 · New A 1 · Miriam Kessler +0.1 · Raymond Osei +0.1 · Terrence Sinclair +0.1 · Rebecca Pacheco +0.1 · +5 more+0.1avg. per official