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Governor of Chicago
Governor of Chicago · November 3, 2026Likely D

Kaminski is clearly favored to win another term

Theodore KaminskiDemocratic · Incumbent
96%chance of winning
Diane VossRepublican · Challenger
4%chance of winning
Kaminski 55.9%Projected vote · D+13.9 ± 7.9Voss 42.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+6.4 — Voss winsSimulation 2: R+3.2 — Voss winsSimulation 3: R+1.6 — Voss winsSimulation 4: R+0.4 — Voss winsSimulation 5: D+0.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 6: D+1.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 7: D+1.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 8: D+2.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 9: D+3.1 — Kaminski winsSimulation 10: D+3.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 11: D+4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 12: D+4.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 13: D+4.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 14: D+5.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 15: D+5.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 16: D+5.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 17: D+6.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 18: D+6.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 19: D+6.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 20: D+7.1 — Kaminski winsSimulation 21: D+7.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 22: D+7.7 — Kaminski winsSimulation 23: D+7.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 24: D+8.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 25: D+8.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 26: D+8.7 — Kaminski winsSimulation 27: D+8.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 28: D+9.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 29: D+9.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 30: D+9.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 31: D+9.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 32: D+10.1 — Kaminski winsSimulation 33: D+10.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 34: D+10.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 35: D+10.7 — Kaminski winsSimulation 36: D+11 — Kaminski winsSimulation 37: D+11.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 38: D+11.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 39: D+11.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 40: D+11.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 41: D+12 — Kaminski winsSimulation 42: D+12.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 43: D+12.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 44: D+12.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 45: D+12.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 46: D+13 — Kaminski winsSimulation 47: D+13.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 48: D+13.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 49: D+13.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 50: D+13.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 51: D+14 — Kaminski winsSimulation 52: D+14.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 53: D+14.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 54: D+14.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 55: D+14.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 56: D+15 — Kaminski winsSimulation 57: D+15.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 58: D+15.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 59: D+15.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 60: D+15.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 61: D+16 — Kaminski winsSimulation 62: D+16.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 63: D+16.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 64: D+16.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 65: D+16.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 66: D+17.1 — Kaminski winsSimulation 67: D+17.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 68: D+17.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 69: D+17.7 — Kaminski winsSimulation 70: D+17.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 71: D+18.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 72: D+18.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 73: D+18.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 74: D+18.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 75: D+19.1 — Kaminski winsSimulation 76: D+19.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 77: D+19.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 78: D+19.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 79: D+20.1 — Kaminski winsSimulation 80: D+20.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 81: D+20.7 — Kaminski winsSimulation 82: D+21 — Kaminski winsSimulation 83: D+21.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 84: D+21.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 85: D+21.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 86: D+22.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 87: D+22.6 — Kaminski winsSimulation 88: D+23 — Kaminski winsSimulation 89: D+23.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 90: D+23.8 — Kaminski winsSimulation 91: D+24.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 92: D+24.7 — Kaminski winsSimulation 93: D+25.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 94: D+25.9 — Kaminski winsSimulation 95: D+26.5 — Kaminski winsSimulation 96: D+27.3 — Kaminski winsSimulation 97: D+28.2 — Kaminski winsSimulation 98: D+29.4 — Kaminski winsSimulation 99: D+31 — Kaminski winsSimulation 100: D+34.2 — Kaminski winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Kaminski wins 96 of 100Voss wins 4

The forecast over time

One point a day
KaminskiVoss
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Kaminski 96%Voss 4%
  1. Sep 28Chicago’s governor’s race tightens over transit fares as Kaminski seeks a rare third termR+0.8
Show the forecast as a table
DateKaminskiVossMargin
Sep 192%8%D+14.2
Sep 892%8%D+14
Sep 1592%8%D+14.2
Sep 2293%7%D+14.3
Sep 2992%8%D+13.3
Oct 692%8%D+13.3
Oct 1393%7%D+13.3
Oct 2094%6%D+13.6
Oct 2795%5%D+13.6
Oct 3096%4%D+13.9

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+16.2

Safe D in Chicago; Kaminski is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely DD+11.2

Chicago: Likely D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
ChicagoD+11100%D+13.9

The candidates

Theodore KaminskiDemocratic · Incumbent
51%approve−0.7 down this week

Governor of Chicago since January 2019. Spent his second term on transit fares and pension debt; his opponents spent theirs on him. Seeking a third term on November 3, 2026, against Diane Voss.

  • Freeze transit fares
  • Pay down the pension debt
  • A greener lakefront
Diane VossRepublican · Candidate for Governor of Chicago
42%favorable−0.7 down this week

A downstate state senator. The Republican nominee for Governor on November 3, 2026. Wants the pension debt — and Governor Theodore Kaminski — gone.

  • Pension reform
  • Property-tax freeze
  • Public safety

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 11, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±7.9 points.