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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 3rd District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 3rd District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Leclair is all but certain to win another term

Lucia LeclairDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Zara KalinowskiRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Leclair 72.2%Projected vote · D+46.4 ± 9.0Kalinowski 25.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+23.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 2: D+26.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 3: D+28.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 4: D+30.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 5: D+31.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 6: D+32 — Leclair winsSimulation 7: D+32.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 8: D+33.4 — Leclair winsSimulation 9: D+34.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 10: D+34.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 11: D+35.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 12: D+35.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 13: D+36 — Leclair winsSimulation 14: D+36.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 15: D+36.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 16: D+37.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 17: D+37.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 18: D+38 — Leclair winsSimulation 19: D+38.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 20: D+38.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 21: D+39 — Leclair winsSimulation 22: D+39.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 23: D+39.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 24: D+39.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 25: D+40.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 26: D+40.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 27: D+40.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 28: D+41 — Leclair winsSimulation 29: D+41.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 30: D+41.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 31: D+41.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 32: D+42.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 33: D+42.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 34: D+42.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 35: D+42.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 36: D+43.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 37: D+43.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 38: D+43.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 39: D+43.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 40: D+44 — Leclair winsSimulation 41: D+44.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 42: D+44.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 43: D+44.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 44: D+44.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 45: D+45.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 46: D+45.4 — Leclair winsSimulation 47: D+45.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 48: D+45.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 49: D+46.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 50: D+46.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 51: D+46.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 52: D+46.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 53: D+47 — Leclair winsSimulation 54: D+47.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 55: D+47.4 — Leclair winsSimulation 56: D+47.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 57: D+47.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 58: D+48.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 59: D+48.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 60: D+48.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 61: D+48.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 62: D+49 — Leclair winsSimulation 63: D+49.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 64: D+49.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 65: D+49.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 66: D+50 — Leclair winsSimulation 67: D+50.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 68: D+50.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 69: D+50.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 70: D+51 — Leclair winsSimulation 71: D+51.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 72: D+51.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 73: D+51.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 74: D+52.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 75: D+52.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 76: D+52.6 — Leclair winsSimulation 77: D+52.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 78: D+53.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 79: D+53.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 80: D+53.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 81: D+54.1 — Leclair winsSimulation 82: D+54.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 83: D+54.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 84: D+55.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 85: D+55.5 — Leclair winsSimulation 86: D+55.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 87: D+56.3 — Leclair winsSimulation 88: D+56.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 89: D+57.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 90: D+57.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 91: D+58.2 — Leclair winsSimulation 92: D+58.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 93: D+59.4 — Leclair winsSimulation 94: D+60 — Leclair winsSimulation 95: D+60.8 — Leclair winsSimulation 96: D+61.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 97: D+62.7 — Leclair winsSimulation 98: D+64 — Leclair winsSimulation 99: D+65.9 — Leclair winsSimulation 100: D+69.6 — Leclair winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70
Leclair wins 100 of 100Kalinowski wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
LeclairKalinowski
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Leclair >99%Kalinowski <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateLeclairKalinowskiMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+46.6
Sep 22>99%<1%D+46.8
Oct 13>99%<1%D+45.9
Oct 30>99%<1%D+46.4

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+48.5

Safe D in Penn A's 3rd; Leclair is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe DD+43.8

Safe D. Penn A's 3rd voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 3rdD+40100%D+46.4

The candidates

Lucia LeclairDemocratic · Incumbent
54%approve−1.2 down this week

Has represented Penn A's 3rd District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for flood insurance; in Washington for lower drug prices. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Zara Kalinowski.

  • Flood insurance
  • Lower drug prices
Zara KalinowskiRepublican · Candidate for Penn A's 3rd District
40%favorable−1.4 down this week

The Republican nominee for Penn A's 3rd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Lucia Leclair.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.