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U.S. Representative for V Beach's 8th District
U.S. Representative for V Beach's 8th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Dragomir is all but certain to win another term

Mira DragomirDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Valerie CarriganRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Dragomir 73.4%Projected vote · D+48.9 ± 9.0Carrigan 24.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+25.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 2: D+29.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 3: D+31.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 4: D+32.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 5: D+33.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 6: D+34.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 7: D+35.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 8: D+35.9 — Dragomir winsSimulation 9: D+36.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 10: D+37.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 11: D+37.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 12: D+38.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 13: D+38.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 14: D+39 — Dragomir winsSimulation 15: D+39.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 16: D+39.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 17: D+40.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 18: D+40.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 19: D+40.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 20: D+41.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 21: D+41.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 22: D+41.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 23: D+42.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 24: D+42.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 25: D+42.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 26: D+43 — Dragomir winsSimulation 27: D+43.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 28: D+43.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 29: D+43.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 30: D+44.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 31: D+44.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 32: D+44.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 33: D+44.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 34: D+45.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 35: D+45.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 36: D+45.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 37: D+45.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 38: D+46 — Dragomir winsSimulation 39: D+46.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 40: D+46.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 41: D+46.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 42: D+47 — Dragomir winsSimulation 43: D+47.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 44: D+47.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 45: D+47.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 46: D+47.9 — Dragomir winsSimulation 47: D+48.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 48: D+48.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 49: D+48.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 50: D+48.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 51: D+49 — Dragomir winsSimulation 52: D+49.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 53: D+49.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 54: D+49.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 55: D+49.9 — Dragomir winsSimulation 56: D+50.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 57: D+50.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 58: D+50.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 59: D+50.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 60: D+51.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 61: D+51.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 62: D+51.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 63: D+51.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 64: D+52 — Dragomir winsSimulation 65: D+52.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 66: D+52.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 67: D+52.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 68: D+53 — Dragomir winsSimulation 69: D+53.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 70: D+53.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 71: D+53.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 72: D+54 — Dragomir winsSimulation 73: D+54.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 74: D+54.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 75: D+54.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 76: D+55.1 — Dragomir winsSimulation 77: D+55.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 78: D+55.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 79: D+56 — Dragomir winsSimulation 80: D+56.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 81: D+56.6 — Dragomir winsSimulation 82: D+57 — Dragomir winsSimulation 83: D+57.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 84: D+57.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 85: D+58 — Dragomir winsSimulation 86: D+58.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 87: D+58.8 — Dragomir winsSimulation 88: D+59.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 89: D+59.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 90: D+60.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 91: D+60.7 — Dragomir winsSimulation 92: D+61.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 93: D+61.9 — Dragomir winsSimulation 94: D+62.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 95: D+63.3 — Dragomir winsSimulation 96: D+64.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 97: D+65.2 — Dragomir winsSimulation 98: D+66.5 — Dragomir winsSimulation 99: D+68.4 — Dragomir winsSimulation 100: D+72.1 — Dragomir winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70D+80
Dragomir wins 100 of 100Carrigan wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
DragomirCarrigan
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Dragomir >99%Carrigan <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateDragomirCarriganMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+49.6
Sep 22>99%<1%D+49.7
Oct 13>99%<1%D+49.1
Oct 30>99%<1%D+48.9

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+50.5

Safe D in V Beach's 8th; Dragomir is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe DD+45.4

Safe D. V Beach's 8th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
V Beach 8thD+44100%D+48.9

The candidates

Mira DragomirDemocratic · Incumbent
51%approve0.0 unchanged this week

Has represented V Beach's 8th District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for housing costs; in Washington for small-business loans. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Valerie Carrigan.

  • Housing costs
  • Small-business loans
Valerie CarriganRepublican · Candidate for V Beach's 8th District
45%favorable−0.4 down this week

The Republican nominee for V Beach's 8th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Mira Dragomir.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.