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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 16th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 16th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Zeller is all but certain to win another term

Felix KowalskiDemocratic · Challenger
1%chance of winning
Benjamin ZellerRepublican · Incumbent
99%chance of winning
Kowalski 38.8%Projected vote · R+20.4 ± 9.0Zeller 59.2%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+43.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 2: R+39.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 3: R+38 — Zeller winsSimulation 4: R+36.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 5: R+35.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 6: R+34.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 7: R+34 — Zeller winsSimulation 8: R+33.4 — Zeller winsSimulation 9: R+32.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 10: R+32.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 11: R+31.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 12: R+31.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 13: R+30.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 14: R+30.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 15: R+29.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 16: R+29.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 17: R+29.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 18: R+28.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 19: R+28.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 20: R+28.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 21: R+27.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 22: R+27.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 23: R+27.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 24: R+26.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 25: R+26.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 26: R+26.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 27: R+26.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 28: R+25.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 29: R+25.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 30: R+25.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 31: R+25 — Zeller winsSimulation 32: R+24.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 33: R+24.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 34: R+24.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 35: R+24 — Zeller winsSimulation 36: R+23.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 37: R+23.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 38: R+23.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 39: R+23 — Zeller winsSimulation 40: R+22.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 41: R+22.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 42: R+22.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 43: R+22.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 44: R+21.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 45: R+21.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 46: R+21.4 — Zeller winsSimulation 47: R+21.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 48: R+21 — Zeller winsSimulation 49: R+20.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 50: R+20.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 51: R+20.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 52: R+20.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 53: R+19.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 54: R+19.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 55: R+19.4 — Zeller winsSimulation 56: R+19.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 57: R+18.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 58: R+18.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 59: R+18.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 60: R+18.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 61: R+18 — Zeller winsSimulation 62: R+17.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 63: R+17.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 64: R+17.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 65: R+17.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 66: R+16.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 67: R+16.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 68: R+16.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 69: R+16.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 70: R+15.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 71: R+15.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 72: R+15.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 73: R+15 — Zeller winsSimulation 74: R+14.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 75: R+14.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 76: R+14.2 — Zeller winsSimulation 77: R+13.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 78: R+13.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 79: R+13.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 80: R+13 — Zeller winsSimulation 81: R+12.7 — Zeller winsSimulation 82: R+12.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 83: R+12 — Zeller winsSimulation 84: R+11.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 85: R+11.3 — Zeller winsSimulation 86: R+10.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 87: R+10.5 — Zeller winsSimulation 88: R+10 — Zeller winsSimulation 89: R+9.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 90: R+9.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 91: R+8.6 — Zeller winsSimulation 92: R+8.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 93: R+7.4 — Zeller winsSimulation 94: R+6.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 95: R+6 — Zeller winsSimulation 96: R+5.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 97: R+4.1 — Zeller winsSimulation 98: R+2.8 — Zeller winsSimulation 99: R+0.9 — Zeller winsSimulation 100: D+2.8 — Kowalski winsR+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Kowalski wins 1 of 100Zeller wins 99

The forecast over time

One point a day
KowalskiZeller
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Kowalski 1%Zeller 99%
Show the forecast as a table
DateKowalskiZellerMargin
Sep 15%95%R+19.8
Sep 224%96%R+19.9
Oct 132%98%R+20.6
Oct 301%99%R+20.4

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+18.8

Safe R. Zeller leads by about 19 in Chicago's 16th.

FOX News
Safe RR+22.4

Chicago's 16th: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 16thR+18100%R+20.4

The candidates

Felix KowalskiDemocratic · Candidate for Chicago's 16th District
41%favorable+1.1 up this week

The Democratic nominee for Chicago's 16th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Benjamin Zeller.

Benjamin ZellerRepublican · Incumbent
52%approve+0.9 up this week

Has represented Chicago's 16th District in the House since January 2017. Known at home for farm credit; in Washington for veterans' care. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Felix Kowalski.

  • Farm credit
  • Veterans' care

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.