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U.S. Representative for South C's 7th District
U.S. Representative for South C's 7th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Quintanilla is all but certain to win another term

Megan OakleyDemocratic · Challenger
1%chance of winning
Andrea QuintanillaRepublican · Incumbent
99%chance of winning
Oakley 37.7%Projected vote · R+22.6 ± 9.0Quintanilla 60.3%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+45.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 2: R+42.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 3: R+40.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 4: R+38.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 5: R+37.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 6: R+37 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 7: R+36.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 8: R+35.6 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 9: R+34.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 10: R+34.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 11: R+33.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 12: R+33.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 13: R+33 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 14: R+32.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 15: R+32.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 16: R+31.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 17: R+31.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 18: R+31 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 19: R+30.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 20: R+30.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 21: R+30 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 22: R+29.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 23: R+29.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 24: R+29.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 25: R+28.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 26: R+28.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 27: R+28.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 28: R+28 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 29: R+27.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 30: R+27.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 31: R+27.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 32: R+26.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 33: R+26.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 34: R+26.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 35: R+26.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 36: R+25.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 37: R+25.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 38: R+25.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 39: R+25.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 40: R+25 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 41: R+24.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 42: R+24.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 43: R+24.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 44: R+24.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 45: R+23.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 46: R+23.6 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 47: R+23.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 48: R+23.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 49: R+22.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 50: R+22.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 51: R+22.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 52: R+22.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 53: R+22 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 54: R+21.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 55: R+21.6 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 56: R+21.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 57: R+21.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 58: R+20.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 59: R+20.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 60: R+20.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 61: R+20.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 62: R+20 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 63: R+19.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 64: R+19.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 65: R+19.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 66: R+19 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 67: R+18.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 68: R+18.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 69: R+18.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 70: R+18 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 71: R+17.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 72: R+17.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 73: R+17.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 74: R+16.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 75: R+16.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 76: R+16.4 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 77: R+16.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 78: R+15.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 79: R+15.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 80: R+15.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 81: R+14.9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 82: R+14.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 83: R+14.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 84: R+13.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 85: R+13.5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 86: R+13.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 87: R+12.7 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 88: R+12.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 89: R+11.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 90: R+11.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 91: R+10.8 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 92: R+10.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 93: R+9.6 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 94: R+9 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 95: R+8.2 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 96: R+7.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 97: R+6.3 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 98: R+5 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 99: R+3.1 — Quintanilla winsSimulation 100: D+0.6 — Oakley winsR+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Oakley wins 1 of 100Quintanilla wins 99

The forecast over time

One point a day
OakleyQuintanilla
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Oakley 1%Quintanilla 99%
Show the forecast as a table
DateOakleyQuintanillaMargin
Sep 13%97%R+22.3
Sep 222%98%R+22.2
Oct 131%99%R+23.1
Oct 301%99%R+22.6

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+21.1

South C's 7th: Safe R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe RR+24.1

South C's 7th: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
South C 7thR+20100%R+22.6

The candidates

Megan OakleyDemocratic · Candidate for South C's 7th District
40%favorable+0.2 up this week

The Democratic nominee for South C's 7th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Andrea Quintanilla.

Andrea QuintanillaRepublican · Incumbent
52%approve+0.3 up this week

Has represented South C's 7th District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for housing costs; in Washington for small-business loans. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Megan Oakley.

  • Housing costs
  • Small-business loans

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.