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U.S. Representative for New J's 8th District
U.S. Representative for New J's 8th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Quarles is all but certain to win another term

Tobias QuarlesDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Gordon FairchildRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Quarles 65.5%Projected vote · D+32.9 ± 9.0Fairchild 32.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+9.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 2: D+13.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 3: D+15.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 4: D+16.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 5: D+17.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 6: D+18.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 7: D+19.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 8: D+19.9 — Quarles winsSimulation 9: D+20.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 10: D+21.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 11: D+21.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 12: D+22.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 13: D+22.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 14: D+23 — Quarles winsSimulation 15: D+23.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 16: D+23.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 17: D+24.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 18: D+24.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 19: D+24.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 20: D+25.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 21: D+25.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 22: D+25.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 23: D+26.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 24: D+26.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 25: D+26.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 26: D+27 — Quarles winsSimulation 27: D+27.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 28: D+27.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 29: D+27.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 30: D+28.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 31: D+28.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 32: D+28.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 33: D+28.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 34: D+29.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 35: D+29.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 36: D+29.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 37: D+29.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 38: D+30 — Quarles winsSimulation 39: D+30.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 40: D+30.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 41: D+30.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 42: D+31 — Quarles winsSimulation 43: D+31.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 44: D+31.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 45: D+31.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 46: D+31.9 — Quarles winsSimulation 47: D+32.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 48: D+32.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 49: D+32.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 50: D+32.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 51: D+33 — Quarles winsSimulation 52: D+33.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 53: D+33.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 54: D+33.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 55: D+33.9 — Quarles winsSimulation 56: D+34.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 57: D+34.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 58: D+34.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 59: D+34.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 60: D+35.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 61: D+35.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 62: D+35.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 63: D+35.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 64: D+36 — Quarles winsSimulation 65: D+36.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 66: D+36.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 67: D+36.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 68: D+37 — Quarles winsSimulation 69: D+37.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 70: D+37.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 71: D+37.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 72: D+38 — Quarles winsSimulation 73: D+38.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 74: D+38.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 75: D+38.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 76: D+39.1 — Quarles winsSimulation 77: D+39.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 78: D+39.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 79: D+40 — Quarles winsSimulation 80: D+40.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 81: D+40.6 — Quarles winsSimulation 82: D+41 — Quarles winsSimulation 83: D+41.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 84: D+41.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 85: D+42 — Quarles winsSimulation 86: D+42.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 87: D+42.8 — Quarles winsSimulation 88: D+43.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 89: D+43.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 90: D+44.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 91: D+44.7 — Quarles winsSimulation 92: D+45.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 93: D+45.9 — Quarles winsSimulation 94: D+46.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 95: D+47.3 — Quarles winsSimulation 96: D+48.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 97: D+49.2 — Quarles winsSimulation 98: D+50.5 — Quarles winsSimulation 99: D+52.4 — Quarles winsSimulation 100: D+56.1 — Quarles winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60
Quarles wins 100 of 100Fairchild wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
QuarlesFairchild
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Quarles >99%Fairchild <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateQuarlesFairchildMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+33.1
Sep 22>99%<1%D+33.4
Oct 13>99%<1%D+32.3
Oct 30>99%<1%D+32.9

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+34.5

Safe D. Quarles leads by about 34 in New J's 8th.

FOX News
Safe DD+30.1

New J's 8th: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 8thD+28100%D+32.9

The candidates

Tobias QuarlesDemocratic · Incumbent
53%approve−1.5 down this week

Has represented New J's 8th District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for lower drug prices; in Washington for flood insurance. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Gordon Fairchild.

  • Lower drug prices
  • Flood insurance
Gordon FairchildRepublican · Candidate for New J's 8th District
47%favorable−1.3 down this week

The Republican nominee for New J's 8th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Tobias Quarles.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.