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U.S. Representative for V Beach's 5th District
U.S. Representative for V Beach's 5th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Pajari is favored to win another term

Benjamin ThibodeauxDemocratic · Challenger
10%chance of winning
Julian PajariRepublican · Incumbent
90%chance of winning
Thibodeaux 43.3%Projected vote · R+11.3 ± 9.0Pajari 54.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+34.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 2: R+30.8 — Pajari winsSimulation 3: R+28.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 4: R+27.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 5: R+26.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 6: R+25.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 7: R+24.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 8: R+24.3 — Pajari winsSimulation 9: R+23.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 10: R+23.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 11: R+22.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 12: R+22.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 13: R+21.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 14: R+21.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 15: R+20.8 — Pajari winsSimulation 16: R+20.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 17: R+20.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 18: R+19.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 19: R+19.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 20: R+19 — Pajari winsSimulation 21: R+18.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 22: R+18.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 23: R+18.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 24: R+17.8 — Pajari winsSimulation 25: R+17.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 26: R+17.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 27: R+17 — Pajari winsSimulation 28: R+16.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 29: R+16.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 30: R+16.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 31: R+15.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 32: R+15.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 33: R+15.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 34: R+15.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 35: R+14.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 36: R+14.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 37: R+14.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 38: R+14.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 39: R+13.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 40: R+13.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 41: R+13.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 42: R+13.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 43: R+13 — Pajari winsSimulation 44: R+12.8 — Pajari winsSimulation 45: R+12.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 46: R+12.3 — Pajari winsSimulation 47: R+12.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 48: R+11.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 49: R+11.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 50: R+11.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 51: R+11.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 52: R+11 — Pajari winsSimulation 53: R+10.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 54: R+10.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 55: R+10.3 — Pajari winsSimulation 56: R+10.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 57: R+9.8 — Pajari winsSimulation 58: R+9.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 59: R+9.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 60: R+9.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 61: R+8.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 62: R+8.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 63: R+8.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 64: R+8.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 65: R+8 — Pajari winsSimulation 66: R+7.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 67: R+7.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 68: R+7.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 69: R+7 — Pajari winsSimulation 70: R+6.7 — Pajari winsSimulation 71: R+6.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 72: R+6.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 73: R+5.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 74: R+5.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 75: R+5.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 76: R+5.1 — Pajari winsSimulation 77: R+4.8 — Pajari winsSimulation 78: R+4.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 79: R+4.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 80: R+3.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 81: R+3.6 — Pajari winsSimulation 82: R+3.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 83: R+2.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 84: R+2.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 85: R+2.2 — Pajari winsSimulation 86: R+1.8 — Pajari winsSimulation 87: R+1.4 — Pajari winsSimulation 88: R+0.9 — Pajari winsSimulation 89: R+0.5 — Pajari winsSimulation 90: Even — Pajari winsSimulation 91: D+0.5 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 92: D+1 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 93: D+1.7 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 94: D+2.3 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 95: D+3.1 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 96: D+4 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 97: D+5 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 98: D+6.3 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 99: D+8.2 — Thibodeaux winsSimulation 100: D+11.9 — Thibodeaux winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Thibodeaux wins 10 of 100Pajari wins 90

The forecast over time

One point a day
ThibodeauxPajari
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayThibodeaux 10%Pajari 90%
Show the forecast as a table
DateThibodeauxPajariMargin
Sep 118%82%R+10.8
Sep 2216%84%R+10.9
Oct 1312%88%R+12.1
Oct 3010%90%R+11.3

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+10

V Beach's 5th: Likely R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Likely RR+12.8

V Beach's 5th: Likely R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
V Beach 5thR+9100%R+11.3

The candidates

Benjamin ThibodeauxDemocratic · Candidate for V Beach's 5th District
40%favorable+0.4 up this week

The Democratic nominee for V Beach's 5th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Julian Pajari.

Julian PajariRepublican · Incumbent
51%approve+0.4 up this week

Has represented V Beach's 5th District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for small-business loans; in Washington for housing costs. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Benjamin Thibodeaux.

  • Small-business loans
  • Housing costs

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.