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Delegate to the House for Washington D.C.
Delegate to the House for Washington D.C. · November 3, 2026Safe D

Ransome is all but certain to win another term

Evelyn RansomeDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Martin GorskiRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Ransome 94.9%Projected vote · D+91.8 ± 7.9Gorski 3.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+71.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 2: D+74.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 3: D+76.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 4: D+77.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 5: D+78.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 6: D+79.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 7: D+79.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 8: D+80.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 9: D+81 — Ransome winsSimulation 10: D+81.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 11: D+81.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 12: D+82.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 13: D+82.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 14: D+83.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 15: D+83.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 16: D+83.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 17: D+84.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 18: D+84.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 19: D+84.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 20: D+85 — Ransome winsSimulation 21: D+85.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 22: D+85.6 — Ransome winsSimulation 23: D+85.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 24: D+86.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 25: D+86.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 26: D+86.6 — Ransome winsSimulation 27: D+86.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 28: D+87.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 29: D+87.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 30: D+87.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 31: D+87.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 32: D+88 — Ransome winsSimulation 33: D+88.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 34: D+88.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 35: D+88.6 — Ransome winsSimulation 36: D+88.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 37: D+89.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 38: D+89.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 39: D+89.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 40: D+89.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 41: D+89.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 42: D+90.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 43: D+90.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 44: D+90.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 45: D+90.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 46: D+90.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 47: D+91.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 48: D+91.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 49: D+91.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 50: D+91.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 51: D+91.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 52: D+92.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 53: D+92.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 54: D+92.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 55: D+92.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 56: D+92.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 57: D+93.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 58: D+93.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 59: D+93.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 60: D+93.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 61: D+93.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 62: D+94.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 63: D+94.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 64: D+94.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 65: D+94.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 66: D+95 — Ransome winsSimulation 67: D+95.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 68: D+95.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 69: D+95.6 — Ransome winsSimulation 70: D+95.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 71: D+96.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 72: D+96.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 73: D+96.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 74: D+96.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 75: D+97 — Ransome winsSimulation 76: D+97.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 77: D+97.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 78: D+97.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 79: D+98 — Ransome winsSimulation 80: D+98.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 81: D+98.6 — Ransome winsSimulation 82: D+98.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 83: D+99.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 84: D+99.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 85: D+99.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 86: D+100.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 87: D+100.5 — Ransome winsSimulation 88: D+100.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 89: D+101.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 90: D+101.7 — Ransome winsSimulation 91: D+102.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 92: D+102.6 — Ransome winsSimulation 93: D+103.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 94: D+103.8 — Ransome winsSimulation 95: D+104.4 — Ransome winsSimulation 96: D+105.2 — Ransome winsSimulation 97: D+106.1 — Ransome winsSimulation 98: D+107.3 — Ransome winsSimulation 99: D+108.9 — Ransome winsSimulation 100: D+112.1 — Ransome winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70D+80D+90D+100D+110D+120
Ransome wins 100 of 100Gorski wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
RansomeGorski
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Ransome >99%Gorski <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateRansomeGorskiMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+92.4
Sep 8>99%<1%D+92.5
Sep 15>99%<1%D+91.9
Sep 22>99%<1%D+92.3
Sep 29>99%<1%D+91.9
Oct 6>99%<1%D+91.7
Oct 13>99%<1%D+91.7
Oct 20>99%<1%D+92
Oct 27>99%<1%D+91.9
Oct 30>99%<1%D+91.8

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+93.1

Washington D.C.: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+88.9

Washington D.C.: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Washington D.C.D+84100%D+91.8

The candidates

Evelyn RansomeDemocratic · Incumbent
55%approve+0.1 up this week

Washington D.C.'s non-voting Delegate to the House since January 2021. Can write bills, can't vote on them, and reminds the chamber of that every week. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Martin Gorski.

  • Statehood
  • Home rule
  • Full voting rights in the House
Martin GorskiRepublican · Candidate for Delegate to the House for Washington D.C.
34%favorable−0.8 down this week

A lawyer. The Republican nominee for Delegate to the House for Washington D.C. on November 3, 2026, against Delegate Evelyn Ransome.

  • Lower taxes
  • School choice

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±7.9 points.