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U.S. Representative for New A's 8th District · Long Island East
U.S. Representative for New A's 8th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Albrecht is clearly favored to win another term

Adaeze MendelsohnDemocratic · Challenger
6%chance of winning
Priya AlbrechtRepublican · Incumbent
94%chance of winning
Mendelsohn 42.0%Projected vote · R+14.1 ± 9.0Albrecht 56.0%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+37.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 2: R+33.6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 3: R+31.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 4: R+30.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 5: R+29.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 6: R+28.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 7: R+27.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 8: R+27.1 — Albrecht winsSimulation 9: R+26.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 10: R+25.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 11: R+25.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 12: R+24.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 13: R+24.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 14: R+24 — Albrecht winsSimulation 15: R+23.6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 16: R+23.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 17: R+22.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 18: R+22.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 19: R+22.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 20: R+21.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 21: R+21.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 22: R+21.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 23: R+20.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 24: R+20.6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 25: R+20.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 26: R+20 — Albrecht winsSimulation 27: R+19.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 28: R+19.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 29: R+19.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 30: R+18.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 31: R+18.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 32: R+18.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 33: R+18.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 34: R+17.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 35: R+17.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 36: R+17.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 37: R+17.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 38: R+17 — Albrecht winsSimulation 39: R+16.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 40: R+16.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 41: R+16.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 42: R+16 — Albrecht winsSimulation 43: R+15.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 44: R+15.6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 45: R+15.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 46: R+15.1 — Albrecht winsSimulation 47: R+14.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 48: R+14.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 49: R+14.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 50: R+14.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 51: R+14 — Albrecht winsSimulation 52: R+13.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 53: R+13.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 54: R+13.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 55: R+13.1 — Albrecht winsSimulation 56: R+12.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 57: R+12.6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 58: R+12.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 59: R+12.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 60: R+11.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 61: R+11.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 62: R+11.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 63: R+11.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 64: R+11 — Albrecht winsSimulation 65: R+10.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 66: R+10.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 67: R+10.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 68: R+10 — Albrecht winsSimulation 69: R+9.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 70: R+9.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 71: R+9.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 72: R+9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 73: R+8.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 74: R+8.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 75: R+8.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 76: R+7.9 — Albrecht winsSimulation 77: R+7.6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 78: R+7.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 79: R+7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 80: R+6.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 81: R+6.4 — Albrecht winsSimulation 82: R+6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 83: R+5.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 84: R+5.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 85: R+5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 86: R+4.6 — Albrecht winsSimulation 87: R+4.2 — Albrecht winsSimulation 88: R+3.7 — Albrecht winsSimulation 89: R+3.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 90: R+2.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 91: R+2.3 — Albrecht winsSimulation 92: R+1.8 — Albrecht winsSimulation 93: R+1.1 — Albrecht winsSimulation 94: R+0.5 — Albrecht winsSimulation 95: D+0.3 — Mendelsohn winsSimulation 96: D+1.2 — Mendelsohn winsSimulation 97: D+2.2 — Mendelsohn winsSimulation 98: D+3.5 — Mendelsohn winsSimulation 99: D+5.4 — Mendelsohn winsSimulation 100: D+9.1 — Mendelsohn winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Mendelsohn wins 6 of 100Albrecht wins 94

The forecast over time

One point a day
MendelsohnAlbrecht
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Mendelsohn 6%Albrecht 94%
  1. Oct 10Interstate Highways to the West Take Shape, With Opening Slated for Early 2027R+0.4
  2. Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notR+0.3
  3. Sep 9Blakeman opens the home stretch on Soundview Avenue: “Nobody should pay nine emeralds to go to work”R+0.3
Show the forecast as a table
DateMendelsohnAlbrechtMargin
Sep 113%87%R+13.2
Sep 2211%89%R+13.8
Oct 138%92%R+14.6
Oct 306%94%R+14.1

The ratings

PIX 11 Long Island
Likely RR+14.3

Likely R. Albrecht by about 14 in New A's 8th — closer than the yard signs suggest.

New A 1
Likely RR+14

Likely R in New A's 8th. Block by block, Albrecht is ahead.

CNN
Likely RR+12.8

New A's 8th: Likely R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe RR+16.8

Safe R in New A's 8th. Albrecht has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Long Island EastR+12100%R+14.1

The candidates

Adaeze MendelsohnDemocratic · Candidate for New A's 8th District
44%favorable−0.7 down this week

The Democratic nominee for New A's 8th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Priya Albrecht.

Priya AlbrechtRepublican · Incumbent
52%approve−0.5 down this week

Has represented New A's 8th District (Long Island East) in the House since January 2021. Known at home for veterans' care; in Washington for farm credit. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Adaeze Mendelsohn.

  • Veterans' care
  • Farm credit

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.