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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 11th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 11th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Weatherall is clearly favored to win another term

Gloria WeatherallDemocratic · Incumbent
91%chance of winning
Helen FennimoreRepublican · Challenger
9%chance of winning
Weatherall 55.1%Projected vote · D+12.3 ± 9.0Fennimore 42.9%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+10.9 — Fennimore winsSimulation 2: R+7.2 — Fennimore winsSimulation 3: R+5.3 — Fennimore winsSimulation 4: R+4 — Fennimore winsSimulation 5: R+3 — Fennimore winsSimulation 6: R+2.1 — Fennimore winsSimulation 7: R+1.3 — Fennimore winsSimulation 8: R+0.7 — Fennimore winsSimulation 9: Even — Fennimore winsSimulation 10: D+0.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 11: D+1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 12: D+1.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 13: D+1.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 14: D+2.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 15: D+2.8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 16: D+3.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 17: D+3.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 18: D+3.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 19: D+4.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 20: D+4.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 21: D+4.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 22: D+5.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 23: D+5.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 24: D+5.8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 25: D+6.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 26: D+6.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 27: D+6.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 28: D+6.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 29: D+7.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 30: D+7.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 31: D+7.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 32: D+8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 33: D+8.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 34: D+8.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 35: D+8.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 36: D+9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 37: D+9.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 38: D+9.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 39: D+9.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 40: D+9.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 41: D+10.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 42: D+10.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 43: D+10.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 44: D+10.8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 45: D+11.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 46: D+11.3 — Weatherall winsSimulation 47: D+11.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 48: D+11.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 49: D+12 — Weatherall winsSimulation 50: D+12.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 51: D+12.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 52: D+12.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 53: D+12.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 54: D+13.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 55: D+13.3 — Weatherall winsSimulation 56: D+13.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 57: D+13.8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 58: D+14 — Weatherall winsSimulation 59: D+14.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 60: D+14.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 61: D+14.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 62: D+14.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 63: D+15.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 64: D+15.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 65: D+15.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 66: D+15.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 67: D+16.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 68: D+16.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 69: D+16.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 70: D+16.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 71: D+17.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 72: D+17.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 73: D+17.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 74: D+18 — Weatherall winsSimulation 75: D+18.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 76: D+18.5 — Weatherall winsSimulation 77: D+18.8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 78: D+19.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 79: D+19.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 80: D+19.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 81: D+20 — Weatherall winsSimulation 82: D+20.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 83: D+20.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 84: D+21.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 85: D+21.4 — Weatherall winsSimulation 86: D+21.8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 87: D+22.2 — Weatherall winsSimulation 88: D+22.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 89: D+23.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 90: D+23.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 91: D+24.1 — Weatherall winsSimulation 92: D+24.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 93: D+25.3 — Weatherall winsSimulation 94: D+25.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 95: D+26.7 — Weatherall winsSimulation 96: D+27.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 97: D+28.6 — Weatherall winsSimulation 98: D+29.9 — Weatherall winsSimulation 99: D+31.8 — Weatherall winsSimulation 100: D+35.5 — Weatherall winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Weatherall wins 91 of 100Fennimore wins 9

The forecast over time

One point a day
WeatherallFennimore
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Weatherall 91%Fennimore 9%
Show the forecast as a table
DateWeatherallFennimoreMargin
Sep 186%14%D+12.9
Sep 2288%12%D+13.3
Oct 1388%12%D+12.1
Oct 3091%9%D+12.3

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+13.4

Likely D in Chicago's 11th; Weatherall is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely DD+9.8

Chicago's 11th: Likely D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 11thD+8100%D+12.3

The candidates

Gloria WeatherallDemocratic · Incumbent
46%approve−0.2 down this week

Has represented Chicago's 11th District in the House since January 2013. Known at home for the factory reopening; in Washington for school funding. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Helen Fennimore.

  • The factory reopening
  • School funding
Helen FennimoreRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 11th District
43%favorable+0.1 up this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 11th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Gloria Weatherall.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.