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U.S. Representative for New J's 12th District
U.S. Representative for New J's 12th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Kasprzak is all but certain to win another term

Noor KasprzakDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Andrea SolanoRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Kasprzak 61.6%Projected vote · D+25.2 ± 9.0Solano 36.4%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+2 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 2: D+5.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 3: D+7.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 4: D+8.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 5: D+9.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 6: D+10.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 7: D+11.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 8: D+12.2 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 9: D+12.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 10: D+13.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 11: D+13.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 12: D+14.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 13: D+14.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 14: D+15.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 15: D+15.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 16: D+16.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 17: D+16.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 18: D+16.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 19: D+17.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 20: D+17.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 21: D+17.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 22: D+18.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 23: D+18.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 24: D+18.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 25: D+19 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 26: D+19.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 27: D+19.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 28: D+19.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 29: D+20.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 30: D+20.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 31: D+20.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 32: D+20.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 33: D+21.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 34: D+21.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 35: D+21.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 36: D+21.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 37: D+22.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 38: D+22.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 39: D+22.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 40: D+22.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 41: D+23 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 42: D+23.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 43: D+23.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 44: D+23.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 45: D+24 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 46: D+24.2 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 47: D+24.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 48: D+24.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 49: D+24.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 50: D+25.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 51: D+25.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 52: D+25.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 53: D+25.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 54: D+26 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 55: D+26.2 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 56: D+26.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 57: D+26.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 58: D+26.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 59: D+27.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 60: D+27.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 61: D+27.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 62: D+27.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 63: D+28.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 64: D+28.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 65: D+28.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 66: D+28.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 67: D+29 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 68: D+29.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 69: D+29.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 70: D+29.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 71: D+30 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 72: D+30.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 73: D+30.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 74: D+30.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 75: D+31.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 76: D+31.4 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 77: D+31.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 78: D+32 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 79: D+32.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 80: D+32.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 81: D+32.9 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 82: D+33.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 83: D+33.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 84: D+34 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 85: D+34.3 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 86: D+34.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 87: D+35.1 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 88: D+35.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 89: D+36 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 90: D+36.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 91: D+37 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 92: D+37.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 93: D+38.2 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 94: D+38.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 95: D+39.6 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 96: D+40.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 97: D+41.5 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 98: D+42.8 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 99: D+44.7 — Kasprzak winsSimulation 100: D+48.4 — Kasprzak winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50
Kasprzak wins 100 of 100Solano wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
KasprzakSolano
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Kasprzak >99%Solano <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateKasprzakSolanoMargin
Sep 198%2%D+25.3
Sep 2299%1%D+25.5
Oct 1399%1%D+24.8
Oct 30>99%<1%D+25.2

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+26.1

New J's 12th: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+22.2

Safe D. New J's 12th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 12thD+20100%D+25.2

The candidates

Noor KasprzakDemocratic · Incumbent
49%approve0.0 unchanged this week

Has represented New J's 12th District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for broadband; in Washington for the highway rebuild. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Andrea Solano.

  • Broadband
  • The highway rebuild
Andrea SolanoRepublican · Candidate for New J's 12th District
41%favorable−1.0 down this week

The Republican nominee for New J's 12th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Noor Kasprzak.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.