U.S. Representative for New A's 4th District · Progress Heights & the New BK waterfront
U.S. Representative for New A's 4th District · November 3, 2026Safe D
Pacheco is all but certain to win another term
Pacheco 62.1%Projected vote · D+26.2 ± 9.0Llewellyn 35.9%
Each dot is one simulated election
The forecast over time
One point a day- Oct 28Kings Plaza opens in Mill Bergen: New A's largest mall, a four-story garage and a new bus terminal on Avenue UD+0.4
- Sep 30NEW BK RESIDENTS DEMAND FINANCIAL RELIEF AFTER SPENDING ELECTRIC BILL ON LIGHTS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITYR+0.3
- Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notD+0.3
- Sep 5New BK first, Man A second: City Hall corrects the founding recordD+0.4
Show the forecast as a table
| Date | Pacheco | Llewellyn | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 99% | 1% | D+26 |
| Sep 22 | 99% | 1% | D+26.2 |
| Oct 13 | 99% | 1% | D+25.6 |
| Oct 30 | >99% | <1% | D+26.2 |
The ratings
PIX 11PIX 11 Long Island
Safe DD+25.3
Safe D. Pacheco by about 25 in New A's 4th — closer than the yard signs suggest.
NA1New A 1
Safe DD+26.2
Safe D in New A's 4th. Block by block, Pacheco is ahead.
CNNCNN
Safe DD+28.5
Safe D. Pacheco leads by about 28 in New A's 4th.
FOXFOX News
Safe DD+23.3
New A's 4th: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.
Where the votes are
| Area | Lean | Share of vote | Projected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progress Heights & the New BK waterfront | D+20 | 100% | D+26.2 |
The candidates
Rebecca PachecoDemocratic · Incumbent
50%approve+0.9 up this week
Has represented New A's 4th District (Progress Heights & the New BK waterfront) in the House since January 2025. Known at home for broadband; in Washington for the highway rebuild. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Andrea Llewellyn.
- Broadband
- The highway rebuild
Andrea LlewellynRepublican · Candidate for New A's 4th District
39%favorable−1.1 down this week
The Republican nominee for New A's 4th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Rebecca Pacheco.
Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.