Hochul is favored to win another term
The forecast over time
One point a day- Oct 28Kings Plaza's Four-Story Garage Ends Mill Bergen's Parking Drought. Its Bus Terminal Tests Whether Anyone Leaves the CarD+0.3
- Oct 28Kings Plaza Is Finally Open, and the Credit Belongs to Anthropic, Not City HallR+1.3
- Oct 28Kings Plaza opens in Mill Bergen: New A's largest mall, a four-story garage and a new bus terminal on Avenue UD+0.5
- Oct 4FOX News poll: Blakeman within six as affordability tops voters’ worries in New AR+1.1
- Oct 4First weekend over the Penn A bridge: freight on Flatbush Avenue, a line at the island’s only pump, and a borough with a neighborR+0.3
- Oct 1CNN poll: Hochul leads Blakeman by 12 in New A, but the toll divides the state almost evenlyD+0.7
Show the forecast as a table
| Date | Hochul | Blakeman | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1 | 87% | 13% | D+11.6 |
| Sep 8 | 87% | 13% | D+11.5 |
| Sep 15 | 87% | 13% | D+11.2 |
| Sep 22 | 87% | 13% | D+10.9 |
| Sep 29 | 86% | 14% | D+10.3 |
| Oct 6 | 86% | 14% | D+9.8 |
| Oct 13 | 86% | 14% | D+9.8 |
| Oct 20 | 88% | 12% | D+10.1 |
| Oct 27 | 89% | 11% | D+10.2 |
| Oct 30 | 89% | 11% | D+9.6 |
The ratings
Watch the island early. If Blakeman doesn't run up R+9 or better out here, call it a night.
Borough by borough: Hochul carries 3 of 5. Long Island is where the night turns.
Likely D — Hochul up 11. Our decision desk will be watching the late count closely.
Lean D. The coastal pundits have Hochul cruising — the kitchen-table numbers say otherwise.
The polls
Polling average D+8.7 · 52% of today's forecast| Poll | Dates | Sample | Hochul | Blakeman | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOX NewsSep 29–Oct 3 · n=1,002 | Sep 29–Oct 3 | 1,002 | 48% | 42% | D+6 | D+8.2 |
| CNNSep 26–30 · n=1,060 | Sep 26–30 | 1,060 | 52% | 40% | D+12 | D+9.2 |
| PIX 11 Long IslandSep 19–23 · n=900 | Sep 19–23 | 900 | 51% | 42% | D+9 | D+8.7 |
| New A 1Sep 9–13 · n=1,140 | Sep 9–13 | 1,140 | 52% | 41% | D+11 | D+8.9 |
The average corrects each poll for its outlet's house lean and for how far the race has moved on the news since it ran, and weights the fresher and larger ones more. The forecast blends it with the fundamentals — the polls count for more as Election Day nears. Each outlet's own rating is anchored to its latest poll.
Borough by borough
Recolour by outlet, or swing the raceShow the map as a table
| Borough | Lean | Share of vote | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man A | D+36 | 20% | D+36.9 |
| New BK | D+13 | 27% | D+13.9 |
| New S | R+26 | 8% | R+25.1 |
| The BX | D+26 | 12% | D+26.9 |
| Long Island | R+9 | 33% | R+8.1 |
The candidates
Governor of the State of New A since August 2021. Paused the Congestion Relief Zone toll in 2024, brought it back at nine emeralds in January 2025, matched the toll's Atlantic Terminal money in April 2026 and, memorably, fixed a turnstile herself. Proud of the Metro; mentions upstate a lot. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Long Island Executive Bruce Blakeman.
- Finish Atlantic Terminal by 2027
- Two-minute Metro headways on every line
- Keep the Congestion Relief Zone — and the emeralds underground
- Upstate rail to North C and New J
- A middle-class tax cut paid for by the toll's surplus
Long Island Executive since January 2022. Keeps a framed photo of the bridge he wants toll-free and says 'Long Island first' in every speech, usually twice. The Republican nominee for Governor on November 3, 2026, promising to run the state 'like Long Island — on time, under budget, and nobody pays nine emeralds to go to work.'
- Affordability: cap the property-tax levy and freeze state fees
- Public safety: a trooper on every Metro platform after dark
- Lower taxes: cut the state income tax for the middle class
- End the Congestion Relief Zone toll on day one
- Long Island first — the borough that pays the most gets its fair share back
Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 1, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±7.9 points.