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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 15th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 15th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Emerson is all but certain to win another term

Deepa PradoDemocratic · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Megan EmersonRepublican · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Prado 35.3%Projected vote · R+27.5 ± 9.0Emerson 62.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+50.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 2: R+47 — Emerson winsSimulation 3: R+45.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 4: R+43.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 5: R+42.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 6: R+41.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 7: R+41.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 8: R+40.5 — Emerson winsSimulation 9: R+39.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 10: R+39.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 11: R+38.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 12: R+38.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 13: R+37.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 14: R+37.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 15: R+37 — Emerson winsSimulation 16: R+36.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 17: R+36.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 18: R+35.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 19: R+35.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 20: R+35.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 21: R+34.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 22: R+34.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 23: R+34.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 24: R+34 — Emerson winsSimulation 25: R+33.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 26: R+33.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 27: R+33.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 28: R+32.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 29: R+32.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 30: R+32.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 31: R+32.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 32: R+31.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 33: R+31.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 34: R+31.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 35: R+31.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 36: R+30.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 37: R+30.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 38: R+30.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 39: R+30.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 40: R+29.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 41: R+29.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 42: R+29.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 43: R+29.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 44: R+29 — Emerson winsSimulation 45: R+28.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 46: R+28.5 — Emerson winsSimulation 47: R+28.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 48: R+28.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 49: R+27.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 50: R+27.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 51: R+27.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 52: R+27.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 53: R+26.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 54: R+26.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 55: R+26.5 — Emerson winsSimulation 56: R+26.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 57: R+26 — Emerson winsSimulation 58: R+25.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 59: R+25.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 60: R+25.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 61: R+25.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 62: R+24.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 63: R+24.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 64: R+24.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 65: R+24.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 66: R+23.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 67: R+23.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 68: R+23.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 69: R+23.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 70: R+22.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 71: R+22.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 72: R+22.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 73: R+22.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 74: R+21.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 75: R+21.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 76: R+21.3 — Emerson winsSimulation 77: R+21 — Emerson winsSimulation 78: R+20.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 79: R+20.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 80: R+20.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 81: R+19.8 — Emerson winsSimulation 82: R+19.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 83: R+19.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 84: R+18.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 85: R+18.4 — Emerson winsSimulation 86: R+18 — Emerson winsSimulation 87: R+17.6 — Emerson winsSimulation 88: R+17.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 89: R+16.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 90: R+16.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 91: R+15.7 — Emerson winsSimulation 92: R+15.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 93: R+14.5 — Emerson winsSimulation 94: R+13.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 95: R+13.1 — Emerson winsSimulation 96: R+12.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 97: R+11.2 — Emerson winsSimulation 98: R+9.9 — Emerson winsSimulation 99: R+8 — Emerson winsSimulation 100: R+4.3 — Emerson winsR+60R+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Prado wins 0 of 100Emerson wins 100

The forecast over time

One point a day
PradoEmerson
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Prado <1%Emerson >99%
Show the forecast as a table
DatePradoEmersonMargin
Sep 11%99%R+26.8
Sep 221%99%R+26.8
Oct 13<1%>99%R+27.6
Oct 30<1%>99%R+27.5

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+25.2

Safe R. Emerson leads by about 25 in Chicago's 15th.

FOX News
Safe RR+29.8

Chicago's 15th: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 15thR+26100%R+27.5

The candidates

Deepa PradoDemocratic · Candidate for Chicago's 15th District
41%favorable+0.1 up this week

The Democratic nominee for Chicago's 15th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Megan Emerson.

Megan EmersonRepublican · Incumbent
47%approve+1.1 up this week

Has represented Chicago's 15th District in the House since January 2023. Known at home for public safety grants; in Washington for transit money for the district. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Deepa Prado.

  • Public safety grants
  • Transit money for the district

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.