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U.S. Representative for North C's 13th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 13th District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Chakraborty is favored to win another term

Darius AmbersonDemocratic · Challenger
19%chance of winning
Terrence ChakrabortyRepublican · Incumbent
81%chance of winning
Amberson 45.0%Projected vote · R+7.9 ± 9.0Chakraborty 53.0%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+31.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 2: R+27.4 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 3: R+25.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 4: R+24.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 5: R+23.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 6: R+22.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 7: R+21.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 8: R+20.9 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 9: R+20.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 10: R+19.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 11: R+19.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 12: R+18.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 13: R+18.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 14: R+17.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 15: R+17.4 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 16: R+17 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 17: R+16.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 18: R+16.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 19: R+16 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 20: R+15.6 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 21: R+15.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 22: R+15 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 23: R+14.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 24: R+14.4 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 25: R+14.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 26: R+13.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 27: R+13.6 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 28: R+13.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 29: R+13 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 30: R+12.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 31: R+12.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 32: R+12.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 33: R+12 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 34: R+11.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 35: R+11.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 36: R+11.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 37: R+11 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 38: R+10.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 39: R+10.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 40: R+10.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 41: R+10.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 42: R+9.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 43: R+9.6 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 44: R+9.4 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 45: R+9.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 46: R+8.9 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 47: R+8.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 48: R+8.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 49: R+8.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 50: R+8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 51: R+7.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 52: R+7.6 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 53: R+7.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 54: R+7.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 55: R+6.9 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 56: R+6.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 57: R+6.4 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 58: R+6.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 59: R+6 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 60: R+5.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 61: R+5.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 62: R+5.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 63: R+5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 64: R+4.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 65: R+4.6 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 66: R+4.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 67: R+4.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 68: R+3.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 69: R+3.6 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 70: R+3.3 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 71: R+3.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 72: R+2.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 73: R+2.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 74: R+2.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 75: R+2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 76: R+1.7 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 77: R+1.4 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 78: R+1.1 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 79: R+0.8 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 80: R+0.5 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 81: R+0.2 — Chakraborty winsSimulation 82: D+0.2 — Amberson winsSimulation 83: D+0.5 — Amberson winsSimulation 84: D+0.9 — Amberson winsSimulation 85: D+1.2 — Amberson winsSimulation 86: D+1.6 — Amberson winsSimulation 87: D+2 — Amberson winsSimulation 88: D+2.5 — Amberson winsSimulation 89: D+2.9 — Amberson winsSimulation 90: D+3.4 — Amberson winsSimulation 91: D+3.9 — Amberson winsSimulation 92: D+4.4 — Amberson winsSimulation 93: D+5.1 — Amberson winsSimulation 94: D+5.7 — Amberson winsSimulation 95: D+6.5 — Amberson winsSimulation 96: D+7.4 — Amberson winsSimulation 97: D+8.4 — Amberson winsSimulation 98: D+9.7 — Amberson winsSimulation 99: D+11.6 — Amberson winsSimulation 100: D+15.3 — Amberson winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Amberson wins 19 of 100Chakraborty wins 81

The forecast over time

One point a day
AmbersonChakraborty
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayAmberson 19%Chakraborty 81%
Show the forecast as a table
DateAmbersonChakrabortyMargin
Sep 127%73%R+7.3
Sep 2226%74%R+7.2
Oct 1322%78%R+7.9
Oct 3019%81%R+7.9

The ratings

CNN
Lean RR+5.7

Lean R in North C's 13th; Chakraborty is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+10.8

North C's 13th: Likely R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 13thR+7100%R+7.9

The candidates

Darius AmbersonDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 13th District
46%favorable−0.5 down this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 13th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Terrence Chakraborty.

Terrence ChakrabortyRepublican · Incumbent
49%approve−0.7 down this week

Has represented North C's 13th District in the House since January 2023. Known at home for school funding; in Washington for the factory reopening. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Darius Amberson.

  • School funding
  • The factory reopening

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.