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U.S. Representative for V Beach's 3rd District
U.S. Representative for V Beach's 3rd District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Mukherjee is all but certain to win another term

Jerome MukherjeeDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Gordon MoreauRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Mukherjee 64.5%Projected vote · D+31 ± 9.0Moreau 33.5%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+7.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 2: D+11.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 3: D+13.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 4: D+14.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 5: D+15.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 6: D+16.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 7: D+17.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 8: D+18 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 9: D+18.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 10: D+19.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 11: D+19.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 12: D+20.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 13: D+20.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 14: D+21.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 15: D+21.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 16: D+21.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 17: D+22.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 18: D+22.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 19: D+22.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 20: D+23.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 21: D+23.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 22: D+23.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 23: D+24.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 24: D+24.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 25: D+24.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 26: D+25.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 27: D+25.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 28: D+25.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 29: D+25.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 30: D+26.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 31: D+26.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 32: D+26.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 33: D+26.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 34: D+27.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 35: D+27.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 36: D+27.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 37: D+27.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 38: D+28.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 39: D+28.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 40: D+28.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 41: D+28.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 42: D+29.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 43: D+29.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 44: D+29.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 45: D+29.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 46: D+30 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 47: D+30.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 48: D+30.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 49: D+30.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 50: D+30.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 51: D+31.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 52: D+31.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 53: D+31.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 54: D+31.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 55: D+32 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 56: D+32.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 57: D+32.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 58: D+32.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 59: D+32.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 60: D+33.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 61: D+33.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 62: D+33.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 63: D+33.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 64: D+34.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 65: D+34.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 66: D+34.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 67: D+34.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 68: D+35.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 69: D+35.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 70: D+35.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 71: D+35.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 72: D+36.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 73: D+36.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 74: D+36.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 75: D+36.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 76: D+37.2 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 77: D+37.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 78: D+37.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 79: D+38.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 80: D+38.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 81: D+38.7 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 82: D+39.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 83: D+39.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 84: D+39.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 85: D+40.1 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 86: D+40.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 87: D+40.9 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 88: D+41.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 89: D+41.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 90: D+42.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 91: D+42.8 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 92: D+43.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 93: D+44 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 94: D+44.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 95: D+45.4 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 96: D+46.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 97: D+47.3 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 98: D+48.6 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 99: D+50.5 — Mukherjee winsSimulation 100: D+54.2 — Mukherjee winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60
Mukherjee wins 100 of 100Moreau wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
MukherjeeMoreau
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Mukherjee >99%Moreau <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateMukherjeeMoreauMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+31.4
Sep 22>99%<1%D+31.3
Oct 13>99%<1%D+30.7
Oct 30>99%<1%D+31

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+33.2

V Beach's 3rd: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+29.1

V Beach's 3rd: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
V Beach 3rdD+26100%D+31

The candidates

Jerome MukherjeeDemocratic · Incumbent
54%approve−0.4 down this week

Has represented V Beach's 3rd District in the House since January 2015. Known at home for transit money for the district; in Washington for public safety grants. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Gordon Moreau.

  • Transit money for the district
  • Public safety grants
Gordon MoreauRepublican · Candidate for V Beach's 3rd District
47%favorable+1.2 up this week

The Republican nominee for V Beach's 3rd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Jerome Mukherjee.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.