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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 10th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 10th District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Chatterjee is clearly favored to win another term

Tobias ChatterjeeDemocratic · Incumbent
98%chance of winning
Gabriel BarrientosRepublican · Challenger
2%chance of winning
Chatterjee 57.9%Projected vote · D+17.7 ± 9.0Barrientos 40.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+5.5 — Barrientos winsSimulation 2: R+1.8 — Barrientos winsSimulation 3: D+0.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 4: D+1.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 5: D+2.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 6: D+3.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 7: D+4.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 8: D+4.7 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 9: D+5.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 10: D+5.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 11: D+6.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 12: D+6.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 13: D+7.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 14: D+7.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 15: D+8.2 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 16: D+8.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 17: D+8.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 18: D+9.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 19: D+9.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 20: D+10 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 21: D+10.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 22: D+10.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 23: D+10.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 24: D+11.2 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 25: D+11.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 26: D+11.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 27: D+12 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 28: D+12.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 29: D+12.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 30: D+12.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 31: D+13.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 32: D+13.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 33: D+13.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 34: D+13.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 35: D+14.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 36: D+14.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 37: D+14.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 38: D+14.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 39: D+15.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 40: D+15.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 41: D+15.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 42: D+15.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 43: D+16 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 44: D+16.2 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 45: D+16.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 46: D+16.7 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 47: D+16.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 48: D+17.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 49: D+17.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 50: D+17.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 51: D+17.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 52: D+18 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 53: D+18.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 54: D+18.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 55: D+18.7 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 56: D+18.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 57: D+19.2 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 58: D+19.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 59: D+19.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 60: D+19.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 61: D+20.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 62: D+20.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 63: D+20.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 64: D+20.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 65: D+21 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 66: D+21.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 67: D+21.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 68: D+21.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 69: D+22 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 70: D+22.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 71: D+22.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 72: D+22.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 73: D+23.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 74: D+23.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 75: D+23.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 76: D+23.9 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 77: D+24.2 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 78: D+24.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 79: D+24.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 80: D+25.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 81: D+25.4 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 82: D+25.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 83: D+26.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 84: D+26.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 85: D+26.8 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 86: D+27.2 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 87: D+27.6 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 88: D+28.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 89: D+28.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 90: D+29 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 91: D+29.5 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 92: D+30 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 93: D+30.7 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 94: D+31.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 95: D+32.1 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 96: D+33 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 97: D+34 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 98: D+35.3 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 99: D+37.2 — Chatterjee winsSimulation 100: D+40.9 — Chatterjee winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50
Chatterjee wins 98 of 100Barrientos wins 2

The forecast over time

One point a day
ChatterjeeBarrientos
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Chatterjee 98%Barrientos 2%
Show the forecast as a table
DateChatterjeeBarrientosMargin
Sep 194%6%D+18.1
Sep 2295%5%D+18.5
Oct 1395%5%D+17.3
Oct 3098%2%D+17.7

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+19.6

Safe D in Chicago's 10th; Chatterjee is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely DD+14.4

Chicago's 10th: Likely D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 10thD+12100%D+17.7

The candidates

Tobias ChatterjeeDemocratic · Incumbent
50%approve+1.1 up this week

Has represented Chicago's 10th District in the House since January 2017. Known at home for lower drug prices; in Washington for flood insurance. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Gabriel Barrientos.

  • Lower drug prices
  • Flood insurance
Gabriel BarrientosRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 10th District
39%favorable+1.6 up this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 10th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Tobias Chatterjee.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.