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U.S. Representative for New A's 5th District · Mill Bergen & Flatbush (southern New BK)
U.S. Representative for New A's 5th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Townsend is favored to win another term

Alejandro BallantyneDemocratic · Challenger
11%chance of winning
Jamal TownsendRepublican · Incumbent
89%chance of winning
Ballantyne 43.4%Projected vote · R+11.3 ± 9.0Townsend 54.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+34.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 2: R+30.8 — Townsend winsSimulation 3: R+28.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 4: R+27.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 5: R+26.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 6: R+25.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 7: R+24.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 8: R+24.3 — Townsend winsSimulation 9: R+23.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 10: R+23.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 11: R+22.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 12: R+22.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 13: R+21.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 14: R+21.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 15: R+20.8 — Townsend winsSimulation 16: R+20.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 17: R+20.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 18: R+19.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 19: R+19.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 20: R+19 — Townsend winsSimulation 21: R+18.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 22: R+18.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 23: R+18.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 24: R+17.8 — Townsend winsSimulation 25: R+17.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 26: R+17.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 27: R+17 — Townsend winsSimulation 28: R+16.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 29: R+16.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 30: R+16.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 31: R+15.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 32: R+15.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 33: R+15.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 34: R+15.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 35: R+14.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 36: R+14.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 37: R+14.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 38: R+14.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 39: R+13.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 40: R+13.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 41: R+13.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 42: R+13.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 43: R+13 — Townsend winsSimulation 44: R+12.8 — Townsend winsSimulation 45: R+12.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 46: R+12.3 — Townsend winsSimulation 47: R+12.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 48: R+11.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 49: R+11.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 50: R+11.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 51: R+11.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 52: R+11 — Townsend winsSimulation 53: R+10.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 54: R+10.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 55: R+10.3 — Townsend winsSimulation 56: R+10.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 57: R+9.8 — Townsend winsSimulation 58: R+9.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 59: R+9.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 60: R+9.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 61: R+8.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 62: R+8.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 63: R+8.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 64: R+8.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 65: R+8 — Townsend winsSimulation 66: R+7.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 67: R+7.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 68: R+7.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 69: R+7 — Townsend winsSimulation 70: R+6.7 — Townsend winsSimulation 71: R+6.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 72: R+6.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 73: R+5.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 74: R+5.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 75: R+5.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 76: R+5.1 — Townsend winsSimulation 77: R+4.8 — Townsend winsSimulation 78: R+4.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 79: R+4.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 80: R+3.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 81: R+3.6 — Townsend winsSimulation 82: R+3.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 83: R+2.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 84: R+2.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 85: R+2.2 — Townsend winsSimulation 86: R+1.8 — Townsend winsSimulation 87: R+1.4 — Townsend winsSimulation 88: R+0.9 — Townsend winsSimulation 89: R+0.5 — Townsend winsSimulation 90: Even — Townsend winsSimulation 91: D+0.5 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 92: D+1 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 93: D+1.7 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 94: D+2.3 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 95: D+3.1 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 96: D+4 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 97: D+5 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 98: D+6.3 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 99: D+8.2 — Ballantyne winsSimulation 100: D+11.9 — Ballantyne winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Ballantyne wins 10 of 100Townsend wins 90

The forecast over time

One point a day
BallantyneTownsend
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayBallantyne 11%Townsend 89%
  1. Oct 28Kings Plaza opens in Mill Bergen: New A's largest mall, a four-story garage and a new bus terminal on Avenue UR+0.5
  2. Oct 10Interstate Highways to the West Take Shape, With Opening Slated for Early 2027R+0.4
  3. Sep 30NEW BK RESIDENTS DEMAND FINANCIAL RELIEF AFTER SPENDING ELECTRIC BILL ON LIGHTS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITYD+0.3
  4. Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notR+0.3
  5. Sep 5New BK first, Man A second: City Hall corrects the founding recordR+0.4
Show the forecast as a table
DateBallantyneTownsendMargin
Sep 119%81%R+10.4
Sep 2217%83%R+10.6
Oct 1314%86%R+11.2
Oct 3011%89%R+11.3

The ratings

PIX 11 Long Island
Likely RR+12.8

New A's 5th: Likely R. We'll have the first returns from the island at 9:00 PM.

New A 1
Likely RR+11.6

New A's 5th — Likely R. Our borough desk sees Townsend holding on.

CNN
Likely RR+10.1

New A's 5th: Likely R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Likely RR+14.4

New A's 5th: Likely R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Mill Bergen & Flatbush (southern New BK)R+8100%R+11.3

The candidates

Alejandro BallantyneDemocratic · Candidate for New A's 5th District
39%favorable+0.8 up this week

The Democratic nominee for New A's 5th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Jamal Townsend.

Jamal TownsendRepublican · Incumbent
52%approve+0.9 up this week

Has represented New A's 5th District (Mill Bergen & Flatbush (southern New BK)) in the House since January 2023. Known at home for the commuter line; in Washington for child care. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Alejandro Ballantyne.

  • The commuter line
  • Child care

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.