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U.S. Representative for New J's 7th District
U.S. Representative for New J's 7th District · November 3, 2026Lean R

Duchesne is slightly favored to win another term

Carmen JessupDemocratic · Challenger
37%chance of winning
Nadia DuchesneRepublican · Incumbent
63%chance of winning
Jessup 47.4%Projected vote · R+3.1 ± 9.0Duchesne 50.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+26.3 — Duchesne winsSimulation 2: R+22.6 — Duchesne winsSimulation 3: R+20.7 — Duchesne winsSimulation 4: R+19.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 5: R+18.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 6: R+17.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 7: R+16.7 — Duchesne winsSimulation 8: R+16.1 — Duchesne winsSimulation 9: R+15.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 10: R+14.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 11: R+14.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 12: R+13.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 13: R+13.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 14: R+13 — Duchesne winsSimulation 15: R+12.6 — Duchesne winsSimulation 16: R+12.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 17: R+11.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 18: R+11.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 19: R+11.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 20: R+10.8 — Duchesne winsSimulation 21: R+10.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 22: R+10.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 23: R+9.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 24: R+9.6 — Duchesne winsSimulation 25: R+9.3 — Duchesne winsSimulation 26: R+9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 27: R+8.8 — Duchesne winsSimulation 28: R+8.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 29: R+8.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 30: R+7.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 31: R+7.7 — Duchesne winsSimulation 32: R+7.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 33: R+7.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 34: R+6.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 35: R+6.7 — Duchesne winsSimulation 36: R+6.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 37: R+6.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 38: R+6 — Duchesne winsSimulation 39: R+5.7 — Duchesne winsSimulation 40: R+5.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 41: R+5.3 — Duchesne winsSimulation 42: R+5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 43: R+4.8 — Duchesne winsSimulation 44: R+4.6 — Duchesne winsSimulation 45: R+4.3 — Duchesne winsSimulation 46: R+4.1 — Duchesne winsSimulation 47: R+3.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 48: R+3.7 — Duchesne winsSimulation 49: R+3.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 50: R+3.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 51: R+3 — Duchesne winsSimulation 52: R+2.8 — Duchesne winsSimulation 53: R+2.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 54: R+2.3 — Duchesne winsSimulation 55: R+2.1 — Duchesne winsSimulation 56: R+1.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 57: R+1.6 — Duchesne winsSimulation 58: R+1.4 — Duchesne winsSimulation 59: R+1.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 60: R+0.9 — Duchesne winsSimulation 61: R+0.7 — Duchesne winsSimulation 62: R+0.5 — Duchesne winsSimulation 63: R+0.2 — Duchesne winsSimulation 64: Even — Jessup winsSimulation 65: D+0.2 — Jessup winsSimulation 66: D+0.5 — Jessup winsSimulation 67: D+0.7 — Jessup winsSimulation 68: D+1 — Jessup winsSimulation 69: D+1.2 — Jessup winsSimulation 70: D+1.5 — Jessup winsSimulation 71: D+1.7 — Jessup winsSimulation 72: D+2 — Jessup winsSimulation 73: D+2.3 — Jessup winsSimulation 74: D+2.6 — Jessup winsSimulation 75: D+2.8 — Jessup winsSimulation 76: D+3.1 — Jessup winsSimulation 77: D+3.4 — Jessup winsSimulation 78: D+3.7 — Jessup winsSimulation 79: D+4 — Jessup winsSimulation 80: D+4.3 — Jessup winsSimulation 81: D+4.6 — Jessup winsSimulation 82: D+5 — Jessup winsSimulation 83: D+5.3 — Jessup winsSimulation 84: D+5.7 — Jessup winsSimulation 85: D+6 — Jessup winsSimulation 86: D+6.4 — Jessup winsSimulation 87: D+6.8 — Jessup winsSimulation 88: D+7.3 — Jessup winsSimulation 89: D+7.7 — Jessup winsSimulation 90: D+8.2 — Jessup winsSimulation 91: D+8.7 — Jessup winsSimulation 92: D+9.2 — Jessup winsSimulation 93: D+9.9 — Jessup winsSimulation 94: D+10.5 — Jessup winsSimulation 95: D+11.3 — Jessup winsSimulation 96: D+12.2 — Jessup winsSimulation 97: D+13.2 — Jessup winsSimulation 98: D+14.5 — Jessup winsSimulation 99: D+16.4 — Jessup winsSimulation 100: D+20.1 — Jessup winsR+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
Jessup wins 37 of 100Duchesne wins 63

The forecast over time

One point a day
JessupDuchesne
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayJessup 37%Duchesne 63%
Show the forecast as a table
DateJessupDuchesneMargin
Sep 140%60%R+2.9
Sep 2241%59%R+2.6
Oct 1338%62%R+3.1
Oct 3037%63%R+3.1

The ratings

CNN
Tilt RR+2.2

Tilt R. Duchesne leads by about 2 in New J's 7th.

FOX News
Lean RR+6.6

Lean R in New J's 7th. Duchesne has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
New J 7thR+1100%R+3.1

The candidates

Carmen JessupDemocratic · Candidate for New J's 7th District
39%favorable+0.2 up this week

The Democratic nominee for New J's 7th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Nadia Duchesne.

Nadia DuchesneRepublican · Incumbent
48%approve−0.3 down this week

Has represented New J's 7th District in the House since January 2019. Known at home for broadband; in Washington for the highway rebuild. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Carmen Jessup.

  • Broadband
  • The highway rebuild

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.