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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 17th District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 17th District · November 3, 2026Likely D

Castaneda is favored to win another term

Bianca CastanedaDemocratic · Incumbent
83%chance of winning
Laura EspinalRepublican · Challenger
17%chance of winning
Castaneda 53.3%Projected vote · D+8.6 ± 9.0Espinal 44.7%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+14.6 — Espinal winsSimulation 2: R+10.9 — Espinal winsSimulation 3: R+9 — Espinal winsSimulation 4: R+7.7 — Espinal winsSimulation 5: R+6.7 — Espinal winsSimulation 6: R+5.8 — Espinal winsSimulation 7: R+5 — Espinal winsSimulation 8: R+4.4 — Espinal winsSimulation 9: R+3.7 — Espinal winsSimulation 10: R+3.2 — Espinal winsSimulation 11: R+2.7 — Espinal winsSimulation 12: R+2.2 — Espinal winsSimulation 13: R+1.8 — Espinal winsSimulation 14: R+1.3 — Espinal winsSimulation 15: R+0.9 — Espinal winsSimulation 16: R+0.5 — Espinal winsSimulation 17: R+0.2 — Espinal winsSimulation 18: D+0.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 19: D+0.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 20: D+0.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 21: D+1.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 22: D+1.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 23: D+1.8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 24: D+2.1 — Castaneda winsSimulation 25: D+2.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 26: D+2.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 27: D+2.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 28: D+3.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 29: D+3.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 30: D+3.8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 31: D+4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 32: D+4.3 — Castaneda winsSimulation 33: D+4.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 34: D+4.8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 35: D+5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 36: D+5.3 — Castaneda winsSimulation 37: D+5.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 38: D+5.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 39: D+6 — Castaneda winsSimulation 40: D+6.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 41: D+6.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 42: D+6.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 43: D+6.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 44: D+7.1 — Castaneda winsSimulation 45: D+7.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 46: D+7.6 — Castaneda winsSimulation 47: D+7.8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 48: D+8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 49: D+8.3 — Castaneda winsSimulation 50: D+8.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 51: D+8.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 52: D+8.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 53: D+9.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 54: D+9.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 55: D+9.6 — Castaneda winsSimulation 56: D+9.8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 57: D+10.1 — Castaneda winsSimulation 58: D+10.3 — Castaneda winsSimulation 59: D+10.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 60: D+10.8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 61: D+11 — Castaneda winsSimulation 62: D+11.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 63: D+11.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 64: D+11.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 65: D+11.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 66: D+12.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 67: D+12.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 68: D+12.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 69: D+12.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 70: D+13.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 71: D+13.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 72: D+13.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 73: D+14 — Castaneda winsSimulation 74: D+14.3 — Castaneda winsSimulation 75: D+14.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 76: D+14.8 — Castaneda winsSimulation 77: D+15.1 — Castaneda winsSimulation 78: D+15.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 79: D+15.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 80: D+16 — Castaneda winsSimulation 81: D+16.3 — Castaneda winsSimulation 82: D+16.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 83: D+17 — Castaneda winsSimulation 84: D+17.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 85: D+17.7 — Castaneda winsSimulation 86: D+18.1 — Castaneda winsSimulation 87: D+18.5 — Castaneda winsSimulation 88: D+19 — Castaneda winsSimulation 89: D+19.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 90: D+19.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 91: D+20.4 — Castaneda winsSimulation 92: D+20.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 93: D+21.6 — Castaneda winsSimulation 94: D+22.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 95: D+23 — Castaneda winsSimulation 96: D+23.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 97: D+24.9 — Castaneda winsSimulation 98: D+26.2 — Castaneda winsSimulation 99: D+28.1 — Castaneda winsSimulation 100: D+31.8 — Castaneda winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40
Castaneda wins 83 of 100Espinal wins 17

The forecast over time

One point a day
CastanedaEspinal
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayCastaneda 83%Espinal 17%
Show the forecast as a table
DateCastanedaEspinalMargin
Sep 178%22%D+9.3
Sep 2280%20%D+9.2
Oct 1379%21%D+8.3
Oct 3083%17%D+8.6

The ratings

CNN
Likely DD+11.2

Likely D. Castaneda leads by about 11 in Chicago's 17th.

FOX News
Lean DD+6.3

Chicago's 17th: Lean D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 17thD+3100%D+8.6

The candidates

Bianca CastanedaDemocratic · Incumbent
48%approve−0.8 down this week

Has represented Chicago's 17th District in the House since January 2021. Known at home for housing costs; in Washington for small-business loans. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Laura Espinal.

  • Housing costs
  • Small-business loans
Laura EspinalRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 17th District
39%favorable−1.3 down this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 17th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Bianca Castaneda.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.