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U.S. Representative for North C's 3rd District
U.S. Representative for North C's 3rd District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Jaramillo is clearly favored to win another term

Laura NagelDemocratic · Challenger
6%chance of winning
Carmen JaramilloRepublican · Incumbent
94%chance of winning
Nagel 41.9%Projected vote · R+14.2 ± 9.0Jaramillo 56.1%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+37.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 2: R+33.7 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 3: R+31.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 4: R+30.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 5: R+29.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 6: R+28.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 7: R+27.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 8: R+27.2 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 9: R+26.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 10: R+26 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 11: R+25.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 12: R+25 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 13: R+24.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 14: R+24.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 15: R+23.7 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 16: R+23.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 17: R+23 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 18: R+22.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 19: R+22.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 20: R+21.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 21: R+21.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 22: R+21.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 23: R+21 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 24: R+20.7 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 25: R+20.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 26: R+20.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 27: R+19.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 28: R+19.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 29: R+19.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 30: R+19 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 31: R+18.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 32: R+18.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 33: R+18.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 34: R+18 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 35: R+17.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 36: R+17.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 37: R+17.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 38: R+17.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 39: R+16.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 40: R+16.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 41: R+16.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 42: R+16.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 43: R+15.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 44: R+15.7 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 45: R+15.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 46: R+15.2 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 47: R+15 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 48: R+14.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 49: R+14.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 50: R+14.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 51: R+14.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 52: R+13.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 53: R+13.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 54: R+13.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 55: R+13.2 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 56: R+13 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 57: R+12.7 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 58: R+12.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 59: R+12.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 60: R+12 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 61: R+11.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 62: R+11.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 63: R+11.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 64: R+11.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 65: R+10.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 66: R+10.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 67: R+10.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 68: R+10.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 69: R+9.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 70: R+9.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 71: R+9.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 72: R+9.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 73: R+8.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 74: R+8.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 75: R+8.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 76: R+8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 77: R+7.7 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 78: R+7.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 79: R+7.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 80: R+6.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 81: R+6.5 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 82: R+6.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 83: R+5.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 84: R+5.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 85: R+5.1 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 86: R+4.7 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 87: R+4.3 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 88: R+3.8 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 89: R+3.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 90: R+2.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 91: R+2.4 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 92: R+1.9 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 93: R+1.2 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 94: R+0.6 — Jaramillo winsSimulation 95: D+0.2 — Nagel winsSimulation 96: D+1.1 — Nagel winsSimulation 97: D+2.1 — Nagel winsSimulation 98: D+3.4 — Nagel winsSimulation 99: D+5.3 — Nagel winsSimulation 100: D+9 — Nagel winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Nagel wins 6 of 100Jaramillo wins 94

The forecast over time

One point a day
NagelJaramillo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Nagel 6%Jaramillo 94%
Show the forecast as a table
DateNagelJaramilloMargin
Sep 113%87%R+13.6
Sep 2211%89%R+13.6
Oct 138%92%R+14.7
Oct 306%94%R+14.2

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+12.8

North C's 3rd: Likely R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe RR+16.3

North C's 3rd: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 3rdR+12100%R+14.2

The candidates

Laura NagelDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 3rd District
40%favorable−1.0 down this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 3rd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Carmen Jaramillo.

Carmen JaramilloRepublican · Incumbent
50%approve−0.3 down this week

Has represented North C's 3rd District in the House since January 2013. Known at home for flood insurance; in Washington for lower drug prices. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Laura Nagel.

  • Flood insurance
  • Lower drug prices

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.