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U.S. Representative for Penn A's 2nd District
U.S. Representative for Penn A's 2nd District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Iyer is all but certain to win another term

Lamar IyerDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Reggie YilmazRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Iyer 70.4%Projected vote · D+42.7 ± 9.0Yilmaz 27.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+19.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 2: D+23.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 3: D+25.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 4: D+26.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 5: D+27.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 6: D+28.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 7: D+29.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 8: D+29.7 — Iyer winsSimulation 9: D+30.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 10: D+30.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 11: D+31.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 12: D+31.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 13: D+32.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 14: D+32.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 15: D+33.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 16: D+33.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 17: D+33.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 18: D+34.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 19: D+34.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 20: D+35 — Iyer winsSimulation 21: D+35.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 22: D+35.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 23: D+35.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 24: D+36.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 25: D+36.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 26: D+36.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 27: D+37 — Iyer winsSimulation 28: D+37.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 29: D+37.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 30: D+37.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 31: D+38.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 32: D+38.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 33: D+38.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 34: D+38.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 35: D+39.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 36: D+39.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 37: D+39.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 38: D+39.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 39: D+40.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 40: D+40.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 41: D+40.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 42: D+40.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 43: D+41 — Iyer winsSimulation 44: D+41.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 45: D+41.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 46: D+41.7 — Iyer winsSimulation 47: D+41.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 48: D+42.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 49: D+42.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 50: D+42.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 51: D+42.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 52: D+43 — Iyer winsSimulation 53: D+43.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 54: D+43.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 55: D+43.7 — Iyer winsSimulation 56: D+43.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 57: D+44.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 58: D+44.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 59: D+44.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 60: D+44.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 61: D+45.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 62: D+45.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 63: D+45.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 64: D+45.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 65: D+46 — Iyer winsSimulation 66: D+46.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 67: D+46.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 68: D+46.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 69: D+47 — Iyer winsSimulation 70: D+47.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 71: D+47.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 72: D+47.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 73: D+48.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 74: D+48.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 75: D+48.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 76: D+48.9 — Iyer winsSimulation 77: D+49.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 78: D+49.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 79: D+49.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 80: D+50.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 81: D+50.4 — Iyer winsSimulation 82: D+50.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 83: D+51.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 84: D+51.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 85: D+51.8 — Iyer winsSimulation 86: D+52.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 87: D+52.6 — Iyer winsSimulation 88: D+53.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 89: D+53.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 90: D+54 — Iyer winsSimulation 91: D+54.5 — Iyer winsSimulation 92: D+55 — Iyer winsSimulation 93: D+55.7 — Iyer winsSimulation 94: D+56.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 95: D+57.1 — Iyer winsSimulation 96: D+58 — Iyer winsSimulation 97: D+59 — Iyer winsSimulation 98: D+60.3 — Iyer winsSimulation 99: D+62.2 — Iyer winsSimulation 100: D+65.9 — Iyer winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70
Iyer wins 100 of 100Yilmaz wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
IyerYilmaz
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Iyer >99%Yilmaz <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateIyerYilmazMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+43.5
Sep 22>99%<1%D+43.7
Oct 13>99%<1%D+42.4
Oct 30>99%<1%D+42.7

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+44.5

Penn A's 2nd: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+39.9

Penn A's 2nd: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Penn A 2ndD+38100%D+42.7

The candidates

Lamar IyerDemocratic · Incumbent
45%approve−1.4 down this week

Has represented Penn A's 2nd District in the House since October 2026. One of Penn A's first 17 members of the House, elected in the admission vote and sworn in on October 2, 2026, the day Penn A joined the Union. Known at home for school funding; in Washington for the factory reopening. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Reggie Yilmaz.

  • School funding
  • The factory reopening
Reggie YilmazRepublican · Candidate for Penn A's 2nd District
40%favorable−0.6 down this week

The Republican nominee for Penn A's 2nd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Lamar Iyer.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.