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U.S. Representative for New A's 3rd District · Downtown New BK
U.S. Representative for New A's 3rd District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Sinclair is all but certain to win another term

Terrence SinclairDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Carlos ReinholtRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Sinclair 65.2%Projected vote · D+32.4 ± 9.0Reinholt 32.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+9.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 2: D+12.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 3: D+14.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 4: D+16.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 5: D+17.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 6: D+18 — Sinclair winsSimulation 7: D+18.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 8: D+19.4 — Sinclair winsSimulation 9: D+20.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 10: D+20.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 11: D+21.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 12: D+21.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 13: D+22 — Sinclair winsSimulation 14: D+22.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 15: D+22.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 16: D+23.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 17: D+23.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 18: D+24 — Sinclair winsSimulation 19: D+24.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 20: D+24.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 21: D+25 — Sinclair winsSimulation 22: D+25.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 23: D+25.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 24: D+25.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 25: D+26.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 26: D+26.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 27: D+26.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 28: D+27 — Sinclair winsSimulation 29: D+27.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 30: D+27.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 31: D+27.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 32: D+28.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 33: D+28.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 34: D+28.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 35: D+28.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 36: D+29.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 37: D+29.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 38: D+29.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 39: D+29.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 40: D+30 — Sinclair winsSimulation 41: D+30.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 42: D+30.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 43: D+30.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 44: D+30.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 45: D+31.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 46: D+31.4 — Sinclair winsSimulation 47: D+31.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 48: D+31.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 49: D+32.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 50: D+32.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 51: D+32.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 52: D+32.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 53: D+33 — Sinclair winsSimulation 54: D+33.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 55: D+33.4 — Sinclair winsSimulation 56: D+33.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 57: D+33.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 58: D+34.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 59: D+34.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 60: D+34.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 61: D+34.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 62: D+35 — Sinclair winsSimulation 63: D+35.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 64: D+35.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 65: D+35.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 66: D+36 — Sinclair winsSimulation 67: D+36.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 68: D+36.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 69: D+36.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 70: D+37 — Sinclair winsSimulation 71: D+37.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 72: D+37.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 73: D+37.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 74: D+38.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 75: D+38.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 76: D+38.6 — Sinclair winsSimulation 77: D+38.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 78: D+39.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 79: D+39.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 80: D+39.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 81: D+40.1 — Sinclair winsSimulation 82: D+40.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 83: D+40.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 84: D+41.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 85: D+41.5 — Sinclair winsSimulation 86: D+41.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 87: D+42.3 — Sinclair winsSimulation 88: D+42.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 89: D+43.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 90: D+43.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 91: D+44.2 — Sinclair winsSimulation 92: D+44.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 93: D+45.4 — Sinclair winsSimulation 94: D+46 — Sinclair winsSimulation 95: D+46.8 — Sinclair winsSimulation 96: D+47.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 97: D+48.7 — Sinclair winsSimulation 98: D+50 — Sinclair winsSimulation 99: D+51.9 — Sinclair winsSimulation 100: D+55.6 — Sinclair winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60
Sinclair wins 100 of 100Reinholt wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
SinclairReinholt
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Sinclair >99%Reinholt <1%
  1. Oct 28Kings Plaza opens in Mill Bergen: New A's largest mall, a four-story garage and a new bus terminal on Avenue UD+0.4
  2. Sep 30NEW BK RESIDENTS DEMAND FINANCIAL RELIEF AFTER SPENDING ELECTRIC BILL ON LIGHTS THAT REQUIRE ELECTRICITYR+0.3
  3. Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notD+0.3
  4. Sep 5New BK first, Man A second: City Hall corrects the founding recordD+0.4
Show the forecast as a table
DateSinclairReinholtMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+32.1
Sep 22>99%<1%D+32.8
Oct 13>99%<1%D+32.1
Oct 30>99%<1%D+32.4

The ratings

PIX 11 Long Island
Safe DD+31.4

Safe D in New A's 3rd. Sinclair has the edge on our board.

New A 1
Safe DD+33.5

New A's 3rd — Safe D. Our borough desk sees Sinclair holding on.

CNN
Safe DD+33.4

Safe D. Sinclair leads by about 33 in New A's 3rd.

FOX News
Safe DD+30.2

New A's 3rd: Safe D. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Downtown New BKD+28100%D+32.4

The candidates

Terrence SinclairDemocratic · Incumbent
46%approve+1.0 up this week

Has represented New A's 3rd District (Downtown New BK) in the House since January 2023. Known at home for school funding; in Washington for the factory reopening. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Carlos Reinholt.

  • School funding
  • The factory reopening
Carlos ReinholtRepublican · Candidate for New A's 3rd District
44%favorable+0.4 up this week

The Republican nominee for New A's 3rd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Terrence Sinclair.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.