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U.S. Senator for North C
U.S. Senator for North C · November 3, 2026Open seatToss-up

Alcott vs. Kimbrough is a toss-up

Sandra AlcottDemocratic · Challenger
52%chance of winning
Travis KimbroughRepublican · Challenger
48%chance of winning
Alcott 49.2%Projected vote · D+0.5 ± 7.9Kimbrough 48.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+19.8 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 2: R+16.6 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 3: R+15 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 4: R+13.8 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 5: R+12.9 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 6: R+12.1 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 7: R+11.5 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 8: R+10.9 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 9: R+10.3 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 10: R+9.9 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 11: R+9.4 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 12: R+9 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 13: R+8.6 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 14: R+8.2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 15: R+7.9 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 16: R+7.5 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 17: R+7.2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 18: R+6.9 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 19: R+6.6 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 20: R+6.3 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 21: R+6 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 22: R+5.7 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 23: R+5.5 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 24: R+5.2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 25: R+5 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 26: R+4.7 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 27: R+4.5 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 28: R+4.2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 29: R+4 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 30: R+3.8 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 31: R+3.5 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 32: R+3.3 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 33: R+3.1 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 34: R+2.9 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 35: R+2.7 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 36: R+2.4 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 37: R+2.2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 38: R+2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 39: R+1.8 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 40: R+1.6 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 41: R+1.4 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 42: R+1.2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 43: R+1 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 44: R+0.8 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 45: R+0.6 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 46: R+0.4 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 47: R+0.2 — Kimbrough winsSimulation 48: Even — Alcott winsSimulation 49: D+0.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 50: D+0.4 — Alcott winsSimulation 51: D+0.6 — Alcott winsSimulation 52: D+0.8 — Alcott winsSimulation 53: D+1 — Alcott winsSimulation 54: D+1.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 55: D+1.4 — Alcott winsSimulation 56: D+1.6 — Alcott winsSimulation 57: D+1.8 — Alcott winsSimulation 58: D+2 — Alcott winsSimulation 59: D+2.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 60: D+2.4 — Alcott winsSimulation 61: D+2.6 — Alcott winsSimulation 62: D+2.8 — Alcott winsSimulation 63: D+3 — Alcott winsSimulation 64: D+3.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 65: D+3.4 — Alcott winsSimulation 66: D+3.7 — Alcott winsSimulation 67: D+3.9 — Alcott winsSimulation 68: D+4.1 — Alcott winsSimulation 69: D+4.3 — Alcott winsSimulation 70: D+4.5 — Alcott winsSimulation 71: D+4.8 — Alcott winsSimulation 72: D+5 — Alcott winsSimulation 73: D+5.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 74: D+5.5 — Alcott winsSimulation 75: D+5.7 — Alcott winsSimulation 76: D+6 — Alcott winsSimulation 77: D+6.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 78: D+6.5 — Alcott winsSimulation 79: D+6.7 — Alcott winsSimulation 80: D+7 — Alcott winsSimulation 81: D+7.3 — Alcott winsSimulation 82: D+7.6 — Alcott winsSimulation 83: D+7.9 — Alcott winsSimulation 84: D+8.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 85: D+8.5 — Alcott winsSimulation 86: D+8.9 — Alcott winsSimulation 87: D+9.2 — Alcott winsSimulation 88: D+9.6 — Alcott winsSimulation 89: D+10 — Alcott winsSimulation 90: D+10.4 — Alcott winsSimulation 91: D+10.9 — Alcott winsSimulation 92: D+11.3 — Alcott winsSimulation 93: D+11.9 — Alcott winsSimulation 94: D+12.5 — Alcott winsSimulation 95: D+13.1 — Alcott winsSimulation 96: D+13.9 — Alcott winsSimulation 97: D+14.8 — Alcott winsSimulation 98: D+16 — Alcott winsSimulation 99: D+17.6 — Alcott winsSimulation 100: D+20.8 — Alcott winsR+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30
Alcott wins 53 of 100Kimbrough wins 47

The forecast over time

One point a day
AlcottKimbrough
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Election DayAlcott 52%Kimbrough 48%
Show the forecast as a table
DateAlcottKimbroughMargin
Sep 154%46%D+0.9
Sep 852%48%D+0.5
Sep 1551%49%D+0.3
Sep 2254%46%D+0.9
Sep 2951%49%D+0.3
Oct 651%49%D+0.3
Oct 1350%50%R+0.1
Oct 2050%50%Even
Oct 2751%49%D+0.2
Oct 3052%48%D+0.5

The ratings

CNN
Tilt DD+2.5

North C: Tilt D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Tilt RR+1.9

Tilt R. North C voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North CR+3100%D+0.5

The candidates

Open seat: Wade Thurlow (R) is not running
Sandra AlcottDemocratic · Candidate for the U.S. Senate in North C
53%favorable+1.7 up this week

Former two-term Governor of North C. The Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in North C on November 3, 2026, against Travis Kimbrough; the seat is open.

  • Hurricane recovery
  • Medicaid expansion
  • Teacher pay
Travis KimbroughRepublican · Candidate for the U.S. Senate in North C
44%favorable−1.8 down this week

A former state party chair. The Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in North C on November 3, 2026, against Sandra Alcott; the seat is open.

  • Border security
  • Lower taxes
  • Farm country first

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±7.9 points.