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U.S. Representative for North C's 10th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 10th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Quaye is clearly favored to win another term

Aisha DimitrovDemocratic · Challenger
5%chance of winning
Olivia QuayeRepublican · Incumbent
95%chance of winning
Dimitrov 41.4%Projected vote · R+15.3 ± 9.0Quaye 56.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+38.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 2: R+34.8 — Quaye winsSimulation 3: R+32.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 4: R+31.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 5: R+30.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 6: R+29.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 7: R+28.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 8: R+28.3 — Quaye winsSimulation 9: R+27.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 10: R+27.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 11: R+26.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 12: R+26.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 13: R+25.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 14: R+25.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 15: R+24.8 — Quaye winsSimulation 16: R+24.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 17: R+24.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 18: R+23.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 19: R+23.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 20: R+23 — Quaye winsSimulation 21: R+22.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 22: R+22.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 23: R+22.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 24: R+21.8 — Quaye winsSimulation 25: R+21.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 26: R+21.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 27: R+21 — Quaye winsSimulation 28: R+20.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 29: R+20.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 30: R+20.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 31: R+19.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 32: R+19.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 33: R+19.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 34: R+19.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 35: R+18.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 36: R+18.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 37: R+18.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 38: R+18.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 39: R+17.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 40: R+17.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 41: R+17.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 42: R+17.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 43: R+17 — Quaye winsSimulation 44: R+16.8 — Quaye winsSimulation 45: R+16.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 46: R+16.3 — Quaye winsSimulation 47: R+16.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 48: R+15.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 49: R+15.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 50: R+15.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 51: R+15.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 52: R+15 — Quaye winsSimulation 53: R+14.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 54: R+14.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 55: R+14.3 — Quaye winsSimulation 56: R+14.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 57: R+13.8 — Quaye winsSimulation 58: R+13.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 59: R+13.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 60: R+13.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 61: R+12.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 62: R+12.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 63: R+12.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 64: R+12.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 65: R+12 — Quaye winsSimulation 66: R+11.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 67: R+11.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 68: R+11.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 69: R+11 — Quaye winsSimulation 70: R+10.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 71: R+10.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 72: R+10.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 73: R+9.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 74: R+9.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 75: R+9.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 76: R+9.1 — Quaye winsSimulation 77: R+8.8 — Quaye winsSimulation 78: R+8.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 79: R+8.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 80: R+7.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 81: R+7.6 — Quaye winsSimulation 82: R+7.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 83: R+6.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 84: R+6.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 85: R+6.2 — Quaye winsSimulation 86: R+5.8 — Quaye winsSimulation 87: R+5.4 — Quaye winsSimulation 88: R+4.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 89: R+4.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 90: R+4 — Quaye winsSimulation 91: R+3.5 — Quaye winsSimulation 92: R+3 — Quaye winsSimulation 93: R+2.3 — Quaye winsSimulation 94: R+1.7 — Quaye winsSimulation 95: R+0.9 — Quaye winsSimulation 96: Even — Quaye winsSimulation 97: D+1 — Dimitrov winsSimulation 98: D+2.3 — Dimitrov winsSimulation 99: D+4.2 — Dimitrov winsSimulation 100: D+7.9 — Dimitrov winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Dimitrov wins 4 of 100Quaye wins 96

The forecast over time

One point a day
DimitrovQuaye
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Dimitrov 5%Quaye 95%
Show the forecast as a table
DateDimitrovQuayeMargin
Sep 111%89%R+14.8
Sep 2210%90%R+14.6
Oct 136%94%R+15.9
Oct 305%95%R+15.3

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+13.9

North C's 10th: Likely R. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe RR+17.2

Safe R. North C's 10th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 10thR+14100%R+15.3

The candidates

Aisha DimitrovDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 10th District
38%favorable−0.7 down this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 10th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Olivia Quaye.

Olivia QuayeRepublican · Incumbent
43%approve+0.2 up this week

Has represented North C's 10th District in the House since January 2019. Known at home for child care; in Washington for the commuter line. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Aisha Dimitrov.

  • Child care
  • The commuter line

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.