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U.S. Representative for North C's 5th District
U.S. Representative for North C's 5th District · November 3, 2026Likely R

Lanigan is clearly favored to win another term

Priya DunmoreDemocratic · Challenger
8%chance of winning
Megan LaniganRepublican · Incumbent
92%chance of winning
Dunmore 42.7%Projected vote · R+12.7 ± 9.0Lanigan 55.3%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+35.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 2: R+32.2 — Lanigan winsSimulation 3: R+30.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 4: R+29 — Lanigan winsSimulation 5: R+28 — Lanigan winsSimulation 6: R+27.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 7: R+26.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 8: R+25.7 — Lanigan winsSimulation 9: R+25 — Lanigan winsSimulation 10: R+24.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 11: R+24 — Lanigan winsSimulation 12: R+23.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 13: R+23.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 14: R+22.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 15: R+22.2 — Lanigan winsSimulation 16: R+21.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 17: R+21.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 18: R+21.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 19: R+20.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 20: R+20.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 21: R+20.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 22: R+19.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 23: R+19.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 24: R+19.2 — Lanigan winsSimulation 25: R+18.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 26: R+18.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 27: R+18.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 28: R+18.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 29: R+17.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 30: R+17.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 31: R+17.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 32: R+17 — Lanigan winsSimulation 33: R+16.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 34: R+16.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 35: R+16.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 36: R+16 — Lanigan winsSimulation 37: R+15.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 38: R+15.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 39: R+15.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 40: R+15.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 41: R+14.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 42: R+14.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 43: R+14.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 44: R+14.2 — Lanigan winsSimulation 45: R+13.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 46: R+13.7 — Lanigan winsSimulation 47: R+13.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 48: R+13.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 49: R+13 — Lanigan winsSimulation 50: R+12.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 51: R+12.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 52: R+12.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 53: R+12.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 54: R+11.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 55: R+11.7 — Lanigan winsSimulation 56: R+11.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 57: R+11.2 — Lanigan winsSimulation 58: R+11 — Lanigan winsSimulation 59: R+10.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 60: R+10.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 61: R+10.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 62: R+10.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 63: R+9.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 64: R+9.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 65: R+9.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 66: R+9.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 67: R+8.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 68: R+8.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 69: R+8.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 70: R+8.1 — Lanigan winsSimulation 71: R+7.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 72: R+7.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 73: R+7.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 74: R+7 — Lanigan winsSimulation 75: R+6.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 76: R+6.5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 77: R+6.2 — Lanigan winsSimulation 78: R+5.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 79: R+5.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 80: R+5.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 81: R+5 — Lanigan winsSimulation 82: R+4.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 83: R+4.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 84: R+3.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 85: R+3.6 — Lanigan winsSimulation 86: R+3.2 — Lanigan winsSimulation 87: R+2.8 — Lanigan winsSimulation 88: R+2.3 — Lanigan winsSimulation 89: R+1.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 90: R+1.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 91: R+0.9 — Lanigan winsSimulation 92: R+0.4 — Lanigan winsSimulation 93: D+0.3 — Dunmore winsSimulation 94: D+0.9 — Dunmore winsSimulation 95: D+1.7 — Dunmore winsSimulation 96: D+2.6 — Dunmore winsSimulation 97: D+3.6 — Dunmore winsSimulation 98: D+4.9 — Dunmore winsSimulation 99: D+6.8 — Dunmore winsSimulation 100: D+10.5 — Dunmore winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
Dunmore wins 8 of 100Lanigan wins 92

The forecast over time

One point a day
DunmoreLanigan
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Dunmore 8%Lanigan 92%
Show the forecast as a table
DateDunmoreLaniganMargin
Sep 115%85%R+12.1
Sep 2214%86%R+11.9
Oct 1310%90%R+12.9
Oct 308%92%R+12.7

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+11.2

Likely R in North C's 5th; Lanigan is favored by our team.

FOX News
Likely RR+14.3

Likely R. North C's 5th voters care about prices, not pundits.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
North C 5thR+11100%R+12.7

The candidates

Priya DunmoreDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 5th District
46%favorable+0.5 up this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 5th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Megan Lanigan.

Megan LaniganRepublican · Incumbent
53%approve+1.0 up this week

Has represented North C's 5th District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for broadband; in Washington for the highway rebuild. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Priya Dunmore.

  • Broadband
  • The highway rebuild

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.