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U.S. Representative for Chicago's 1st District
U.S. Representative for Chicago's 1st District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Beaumont is all but certain to win another term

Nathan BeaumontDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Spencer MadrigalRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Beaumont 69.2%Projected vote · D+40.3 ± 9.0Madrigal 28.8%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+17.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 2: D+20.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 3: D+22.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 4: D+24 — Beaumont winsSimulation 5: D+25 — Beaumont winsSimulation 6: D+25.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 7: D+26.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 8: D+27.3 — Beaumont winsSimulation 9: D+28 — Beaumont winsSimulation 10: D+28.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 11: D+29 — Beaumont winsSimulation 12: D+29.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 13: D+29.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 14: D+30.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 15: D+30.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 16: D+31.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 17: D+31.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 18: D+31.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 19: D+32.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 20: D+32.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 21: D+32.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 22: D+33.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 23: D+33.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 24: D+33.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 25: D+34.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 26: D+34.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 27: D+34.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 28: D+34.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 29: D+35.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 30: D+35.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 31: D+35.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 32: D+36 — Beaumont winsSimulation 33: D+36.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 34: D+36.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 35: D+36.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 36: D+37 — Beaumont winsSimulation 37: D+37.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 38: D+37.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 39: D+37.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 40: D+37.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 41: D+38.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 42: D+38.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 43: D+38.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 44: D+38.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 45: D+39.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 46: D+39.3 — Beaumont winsSimulation 47: D+39.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 48: D+39.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 49: D+40 — Beaumont winsSimulation 50: D+40.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 51: D+40.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 52: D+40.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 53: D+40.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 54: D+41.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 55: D+41.3 — Beaumont winsSimulation 56: D+41.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 57: D+41.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 58: D+42 — Beaumont winsSimulation 59: D+42.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 60: D+42.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 61: D+42.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 62: D+42.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 63: D+43.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 64: D+43.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 65: D+43.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 66: D+43.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 67: D+44.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 68: D+44.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 69: D+44.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 70: D+44.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 71: D+45.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 72: D+45.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 73: D+45.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 74: D+46 — Beaumont winsSimulation 75: D+46.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 76: D+46.5 — Beaumont winsSimulation 77: D+46.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 78: D+47.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 79: D+47.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 80: D+47.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 81: D+48 — Beaumont winsSimulation 82: D+48.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 83: D+48.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 84: D+49.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 85: D+49.4 — Beaumont winsSimulation 86: D+49.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 87: D+50.2 — Beaumont winsSimulation 88: D+50.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 89: D+51.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 90: D+51.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 91: D+52.1 — Beaumont winsSimulation 92: D+52.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 93: D+53.3 — Beaumont winsSimulation 94: D+53.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 95: D+54.7 — Beaumont winsSimulation 96: D+55.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 97: D+56.6 — Beaumont winsSimulation 98: D+57.9 — Beaumont winsSimulation 99: D+59.8 — Beaumont winsSimulation 100: D+63.5 — Beaumont winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70
Beaumont wins 100 of 100Madrigal wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
BeaumontMadrigal
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Beaumont >99%Madrigal <1%
Show the forecast as a table
DateBeaumontMadrigalMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+40.5
Sep 22>99%<1%D+40.5
Oct 13>99%<1%D+39.9
Oct 30>99%<1%D+40.3

The ratings

CNN
Safe DD+41.1

Chicago's 1st: Safe D. Watch the suburbs.

FOX News
Safe DD+37.2

Safe D in Chicago's 1st. Madrigal has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Chicago 1stD+36100%D+40.3

The candidates

Nathan BeaumontDemocratic · Incumbent
43%approve−0.6 down this week

Has represented Chicago's 1st District in the House since January 2025. Known at home for the highway rebuild; in Washington for broadband. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Spencer Madrigal.

  • The highway rebuild
  • Broadband
Spencer MadrigalRepublican · Candidate for Chicago's 1st District
40%favorable+0.7 up this week

The Republican nominee for Chicago's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Nathan Beaumont.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 8:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.