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U.S. Representative for North C's 1st District

U.S. Representative for North C's 1st District · November 3, 2026Open seatTilt R

Sutcliffe vs. Ostrowski is a toss-up

Bianca SutcliffeDemocratic · Challenger

45%chance of winning

Helen OstrowskiRepublican · Challenger

55%chance of winning

45%55%

Sutcliffe 48.5%Projected vote · R+1.1 ± 9.0Ostrowski 49.5%

Each dot is one simulated election

Sutcliffe wins 45 of 100Ostrowski wins 55

The forecast over time

One point a day

Show the forecast as a table

Date	Sutcliffe	Ostrowski	Margin
Sep 1	47%	53%	R+0.9
Sep 22	49%	51%	R+0.3
Oct 13	44%	56%	R+1.6
Oct 30	45%	55%	R+1.1

The ratings

CNNCNN

Tilt DD+1.1

Tilt D in North C's 1st; Sutcliffe is favored by our team.

FOXFOX News

Tilt RR+2.8

North C's 1st: Tilt R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

Area	Lean	Share of vote	Projected
North C 1st	R+3	100%	R+1.1

The candidates

Open seat: Alicia Vickers (R) is not running

Bianca SutcliffeDemocratic · Candidate for North C's 1st District

45%favorable+0.4 up this week

The Democratic nominee for North C's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Helen Ostrowski; the seat is open.

Helen OstrowskiRepublican · Candidate for North C's 1st District

44%favorable−0.6 down this week

The Republican nominee for North C's 1st District on November 3, 2026, against Bianca Sutcliffe; the seat is open.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:30 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.