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U.S. Representative for New A's 2nd District · Central & Midtown Man A
U.S. Representative for New A's 2nd District · November 3, 2026Safe D

Arceneaux is all but certain to win another term

Gloria ArceneauxDemocratic · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Elena BabcockRepublican · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Arceneaux 68.7%Projected vote · D+39.4 ± 9.0Babcock 29.3%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: D+16.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 2: D+19.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 3: D+21.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 4: D+23.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 5: D+24.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 6: D+25 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 7: D+25.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 8: D+26.4 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 9: D+27.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 10: D+27.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 11: D+28.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 12: D+28.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 13: D+29 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 14: D+29.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 15: D+29.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 16: D+30.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 17: D+30.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 18: D+31 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 19: D+31.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 20: D+31.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 21: D+32 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 22: D+32.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 23: D+32.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 24: D+32.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 25: D+33.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 26: D+33.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 27: D+33.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 28: D+34 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 29: D+34.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 30: D+34.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 31: D+34.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 32: D+35.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 33: D+35.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 34: D+35.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 35: D+35.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 36: D+36.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 37: D+36.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 38: D+36.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 39: D+36.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 40: D+37 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 41: D+37.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 42: D+37.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 43: D+37.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 44: D+37.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 45: D+38.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 46: D+38.4 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 47: D+38.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 48: D+38.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 49: D+39.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 50: D+39.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 51: D+39.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 52: D+39.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 53: D+40 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 54: D+40.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 55: D+40.4 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 56: D+40.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 57: D+40.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 58: D+41.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 59: D+41.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 60: D+41.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 61: D+41.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 62: D+42 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 63: D+42.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 64: D+42.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 65: D+42.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 66: D+43 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 67: D+43.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 68: D+43.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 69: D+43.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 70: D+44 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 71: D+44.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 72: D+44.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 73: D+44.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 74: D+45.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 75: D+45.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 76: D+45.6 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 77: D+45.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 78: D+46.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 79: D+46.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 80: D+46.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 81: D+47.1 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 82: D+47.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 83: D+47.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 84: D+48.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 85: D+48.5 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 86: D+48.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 87: D+49.3 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 88: D+49.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 89: D+50.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 90: D+50.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 91: D+51.2 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 92: D+51.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 93: D+52.4 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 94: D+53 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 95: D+53.8 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 96: D+54.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 97: D+55.7 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 98: D+57 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 99: D+58.9 — Arceneaux winsSimulation 100: D+62.6 — Arceneaux winsR+10EvenD+10D+20D+30D+40D+50D+60D+70
Arceneaux wins 100 of 100Babcock wins 0

The forecast over time

One point a day
ArceneauxBabcock
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Arceneaux >99%Babcock <1%
  1. Oct 2Election autumn is good business: New A’s broadcasters book their best quarter as campaign ads fill every breakR+0.4
  2. Sep 14New A 1 poll, borough by borough: Hochul leads by 11 — Man A and The BX carry her, Long Island and New S do notD+0.3
  3. Sep 6Independence Tower designated a landmarkD+0.4
  4. Sep 5New BK first, Man A second: City Hall corrects the founding recordD+0.4
Show the forecast as a table
DateArceneauxBabcockMargin
Sep 1>99%<1%D+39.5
Sep 22>99%<1%D+40.6
Oct 13>99%<1%D+39.5
Oct 30>99%<1%D+39.4

The ratings

PIX 11 Long Island
Safe DD+39.4

New A's 2nd: Safe D. We'll have the first returns from the island at 9:00 PM.

New A 1
Safe DD+39.5

New A's 2nd: Safe D. Arceneaux leads by about 39.

CNN
Safe DD+40.7

Safe D in New A's 2nd; Arceneaux is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe DD+36.8

Safe D in New A's 2nd. Babcock has the momentum on the economy.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
Central & Midtown Man AD+34100%D+39.4

The candidates

Gloria ArceneauxDemocratic · Incumbent
54%approve−1.9 down this week

Has represented New A's 2nd District (Central & Midtown Man A) in the House since January 2021. Known at home for flood insurance; in Washington for lower drug prices. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Elena Babcock.

  • Flood insurance
  • Lower drug prices
Elena BabcockRepublican · Candidate for New A's 2nd District
46%favorable−1.2 down this week

The Republican nominee for New A's 2nd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Gloria Arceneaux.

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 9:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.