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U.S. Representative for South C's 5th District
U.S. Representative for South C's 5th District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Lavoie is clearly favored to win another term

Marisol FarrowDemocratic · Challenger
5%chance of winning
Megan LavoieRepublican · Incumbent
95%chance of winning
Farrow 41.4%Projected vote · R+15.2 ± 9.0Lavoie 56.6%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+38.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 2: R+34.7 — Lavoie winsSimulation 3: R+32.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 4: R+31.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 5: R+30.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 6: R+29.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 7: R+28.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 8: R+28.2 — Lavoie winsSimulation 9: R+27.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 10: R+27 — Lavoie winsSimulation 11: R+26.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 12: R+26 — Lavoie winsSimulation 13: R+25.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 14: R+25.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 15: R+24.7 — Lavoie winsSimulation 16: R+24.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 17: R+24 — Lavoie winsSimulation 18: R+23.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 19: R+23.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 20: R+22.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 21: R+22.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 22: R+22.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 23: R+22 — Lavoie winsSimulation 24: R+21.7 — Lavoie winsSimulation 25: R+21.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 26: R+21.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 27: R+20.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 28: R+20.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 29: R+20.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 30: R+20 — Lavoie winsSimulation 31: R+19.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 32: R+19.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 33: R+19.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 34: R+19 — Lavoie winsSimulation 35: R+18.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 36: R+18.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 37: R+18.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 38: R+18.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 39: R+17.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 40: R+17.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 41: R+17.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 42: R+17.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 43: R+16.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 44: R+16.7 — Lavoie winsSimulation 45: R+16.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 46: R+16.2 — Lavoie winsSimulation 47: R+16 — Lavoie winsSimulation 48: R+15.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 49: R+15.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 50: R+15.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 51: R+15.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 52: R+14.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 53: R+14.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 54: R+14.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 55: R+14.2 — Lavoie winsSimulation 56: R+14 — Lavoie winsSimulation 57: R+13.7 — Lavoie winsSimulation 58: R+13.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 59: R+13.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 60: R+13 — Lavoie winsSimulation 61: R+12.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 62: R+12.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 63: R+12.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 64: R+12.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 65: R+11.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 66: R+11.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 67: R+11.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 68: R+11.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 69: R+10.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 70: R+10.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 71: R+10.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 72: R+10.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 73: R+9.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 74: R+9.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 75: R+9.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 76: R+9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 77: R+8.7 — Lavoie winsSimulation 78: R+8.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 79: R+8.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 80: R+7.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 81: R+7.5 — Lavoie winsSimulation 82: R+7.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 83: R+6.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 84: R+6.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 85: R+6.1 — Lavoie winsSimulation 86: R+5.7 — Lavoie winsSimulation 87: R+5.3 — Lavoie winsSimulation 88: R+4.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 89: R+4.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 90: R+3.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 91: R+3.4 — Lavoie winsSimulation 92: R+2.9 — Lavoie winsSimulation 93: R+2.2 — Lavoie winsSimulation 94: R+1.6 — Lavoie winsSimulation 95: R+0.8 — Lavoie winsSimulation 96: D+0.1 — Farrow winsSimulation 97: D+1.1 — Farrow winsSimulation 98: D+2.4 — Farrow winsSimulation 99: D+4.3 — Farrow winsSimulation 100: D+8 — Farrow winsR+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Farrow wins 5 of 100Lavoie wins 95

The forecast over time

One point a day
FarrowLavoie
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Farrow 5%Lavoie 95%
Show the forecast as a table
DateFarrowLavoieMargin
Sep 111%89%R+14.6
Sep 2210%90%R+14.7
Oct 137%93%R+15.4
Oct 305%95%R+15.2

The ratings

CNN
Likely RR+13.6

Likely R in South C's 5th; Lavoie is favored by our team.

FOX News
Safe RR+17.9

South C's 5th: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
South C 5thR+15100%R+15.2

The candidates

Marisol FarrowDemocratic · Candidate for South C's 5th District
47%favorable+1.5 up this week

The Democratic nominee for South C's 5th District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Megan Lavoie.

Megan LavoieRepublican · Incumbent
47%approve−0.1 down this week

Has represented South C's 5th District in the House since January 2017. Known at home for public safety grants; in Washington for transit money for the district. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Marisol Farrow.

  • Public safety grants
  • Transit money for the district

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.