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U.S. Representative for South C's 3rd District
U.S. Representative for South C's 3rd District · November 3, 2026Safe R

Cornwell is all but certain to win another term

Jasmine DraperDemocratic · Challenger
<1%chance of winning
Kara CornwellRepublican · Incumbent
>99%chance of winning
Draper 35.1%Projected vote · R+27.8 ± 9.0Cornwell 62.9%
Each dot is one simulated election
Simulation 1: R+51 — Cornwell winsSimulation 2: R+47.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 3: R+45.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 4: R+44.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 5: R+43.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 6: R+42.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 7: R+41.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 8: R+40.8 — Cornwell winsSimulation 9: R+40.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 10: R+39.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 11: R+39.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 12: R+38.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 13: R+38.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 14: R+37.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 15: R+37.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 16: R+36.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 17: R+36.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 18: R+36.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 19: R+35.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 20: R+35.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 21: R+35.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 22: R+34.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 23: R+34.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 24: R+34.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 25: R+34 — Cornwell winsSimulation 26: R+33.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 27: R+33.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 28: R+33.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 29: R+32.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 30: R+32.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 31: R+32.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 32: R+32.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 33: R+31.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 34: R+31.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 35: R+31.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 36: R+31.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 37: R+30.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 38: R+30.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 39: R+30.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 40: R+30.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 41: R+30 — Cornwell winsSimulation 42: R+29.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 43: R+29.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 44: R+29.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 45: R+29 — Cornwell winsSimulation 46: R+28.8 — Cornwell winsSimulation 47: R+28.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 48: R+28.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 49: R+28.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 50: R+27.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 51: R+27.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 52: R+27.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 53: R+27.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 54: R+27 — Cornwell winsSimulation 55: R+26.8 — Cornwell winsSimulation 56: R+26.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 57: R+26.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 58: R+26.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 59: R+25.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 60: R+25.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 61: R+25.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 62: R+25.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 63: R+24.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 64: R+24.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 65: R+24.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 66: R+24.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 67: R+24 — Cornwell winsSimulation 68: R+23.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 69: R+23.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 70: R+23.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 71: R+23 — Cornwell winsSimulation 72: R+22.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 73: R+22.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 74: R+22.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 75: R+21.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 76: R+21.6 — Cornwell winsSimulation 77: R+21.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 78: R+21 — Cornwell winsSimulation 79: R+20.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 80: R+20.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 81: R+20.1 — Cornwell winsSimulation 82: R+19.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 83: R+19.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 84: R+19 — Cornwell winsSimulation 85: R+18.7 — Cornwell winsSimulation 86: R+18.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 87: R+17.9 — Cornwell winsSimulation 88: R+17.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 89: R+17 — Cornwell winsSimulation 90: R+16.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 91: R+16 — Cornwell winsSimulation 92: R+15.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 93: R+14.8 — Cornwell winsSimulation 94: R+14.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 95: R+13.4 — Cornwell winsSimulation 96: R+12.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 97: R+11.5 — Cornwell winsSimulation 98: R+10.2 — Cornwell winsSimulation 99: R+8.3 — Cornwell winsSimulation 100: R+4.6 — Cornwell winsR+60R+50R+40R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10
Draper wins 0 of 100Cornwell wins 100

The forecast over time

One point a day
DraperCornwell
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 1Sep 15Sep 29Oct 13Oct 27Draper <1%Cornwell >99%
Show the forecast as a table
DateDraperCornwellMargin
Sep 11%99%R+27.4
Sep 221%99%R+27.1
Oct 13<1%>99%R+28
Oct 30<1%>99%R+27.8

The ratings

CNN
Safe RR+25.9

Safe R. Cornwell leads by about 26 in South C's 3rd.

FOX News
Safe RR+30.3

South C's 3rd: Safe R. Don't believe the coastal polls.

Where the votes are

AreaLeanShare of voteProjected
South C 3rdR+28100%R+27.8

The candidates

Jasmine DraperDemocratic · Candidate for South C's 3rd District
47%favorable+0.2 up this week

The Democratic nominee for South C's 3rd District on November 3, 2026, against Rep. Kara Cornwell.

Kara CornwellRepublican · Incumbent
44%approve−0.5 down this week

Has represented South C's 3rd District in the House since January 2019. Known at home for veterans' care; in Washington for farm credit. Seeking another term on November 3, 2026, against Jasmine Draper.

  • Veterans' care
  • Farm credit

Election November 3, 2026 · polls close 7:00 PM New A time · the winner takes office Jan 3, 2027. Forecast uncertainty today: ±9.0 points.